A new POLITICO Poll reveals that more than one-third of Americans believe the 2026 midterm elections are likely to be 'stolen,' and one in four say they don't expect the elections to be fair — yet the two major parties hold starkly opposing views on what election integrity actually requires, complicating efforts to restore public trust in the democratic process.
Nearly six years after President Donald Trump and his allies sought to overturn the 2020 election results, deep suspicion of the electoral system persists across the American electorate. But the nature of that suspicion depends heavily on which party voters belong to, according to new polling published by POLITICO.
The survey asked respondents to evaluate 11 common election practices — ranging from partisan gerrymandering to expanding mail-in voting — and whether each represented a legitimate part of the process or a mechanism for rigging outcomes. On six of those practices, Democrats and Republicans showed meaningful disagreement or lacked consensus among themselves.
Two Parties, Two Fears
Democrats and Republicans are not simply disagreeing about solutions — they are identifying entirely different problems. Among voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris, 58 percent expressed concern that eligible Americans would be prevented from voting. Among Trump voters, 52 percent said they were worried that ineligible people would be allowed to cast ballots.
The divergence extends to specific election practices. Mail-in voting, once considered a routine mechanism for broadening access, is now viewed by a majority of Trump supporters as a potential avenue for rigging elections. By contrast, 59 percent of Harris voters described expanding mail-in voting as a normally or always fair part of the electoral system.
The question of deploying Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents at polling locations illustrates the divide further. A majority of Harris voters said such a measure would be more likely to sway election results unfairly, while 47 percent of Trump voters said it would be a normally or always fair election security measure.
A Definitional Crisis
Experts warn that the disagreement goes beyond policy preference — it reflects a fundamental lack of shared understanding about what constitutes a free and fair election.
"I don't think that we have a great working definition of what constitutes a free and fair election," said Stephen Richer, a legal fellow at the Cato Institute and former Republican county recorder of Maricopa County, Arizona. "I think it is entirely possible that even within the world that doesn't think that elections are being hacked by Italian spy satellites, that we have a disagreement as to whether or not we've had a free and fair election."
President Trump has repeatedly claimed the 2020 results were stolen, pointing to mail voting, the absence of strict voter ID laws, and a lack of proof-of-citizenship requirements as vulnerabilities. Courts and election officials across the country have repeatedly upheld the legitimacy of the 2020 results and found no evidence of widespread fraud.
Many Democrats, meanwhile, are already preparing for potential interference in the 2026 midterms. Democratic attorneys general have reportedly been strategizing about legal responses to what they anticipate could be executive branch involvement in election administration.
The White House defended the administration's position in a statement: "President Trump is committed to ensuring that Americans have full confidence in the administration of elections, and that includes totally accurate and up-to-date voter rolls free of errors and unlawfully registered non-citizen voters," said spokesperson Abigail Jackson.
Despite the widespread distrust captured in the poll, doubt about elections has not uniformly translated into disengagement — a significant share of respondents from both parties indicated they still intend to participate in the 2026 midterms.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Election integrity concerns are no longer confined to one side of the political divide; with over one-third of Americans expecting the 2026 midterms to be 'stolen,' the legitimacy of election outcomes may itself become a major post-election battleground regardless of results.
- The lack of a shared definition of what constitutes a fair election makes legislative compromise on election security nearly impossible, as each proposed reform is interpreted through opposing partisan lenses.
- Policies debated now — such as ICE deployment at polling locations or mail-in voting restrictions — could materially affect voter participation and legal challenges in November 2026.
Background
American confidence in elections began eroding significantly after the contested 2000 presidential election, but the sharpest decline followed the 2020 election, when Trump and allies made repeated — and legally unsuccessful — claims of widespread fraud. More than 60 court cases challenging the 2020 results were dismissed or rejected, and election officials from both parties, including Trump's own Attorney General William Barr, confirmed no evidence of fraud sufficient to alter the outcome.
Nevertheless, the 'Stop the Steal' movement reshaped Republican voter opinion. Polling conducted in subsequent years consistently showed a majority of Republican voters doubting the legitimacy of the 2020 result — a sentiment that has now extended forward to future elections. Meanwhile, the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot and subsequent investigations deepened Democratic fears about political interference in electoral processes.
In the years since, state legislatures have passed a wave of competing election laws — some tightening voter ID requirements and restricting mail-in voting, others expanding early voting and automatic registration — with each side framing its preferred rules as pro-integrity and the other's as either suppressive or fraud-enabling.
Key Perspectives
Republican voters and the Trump administration: Focused primarily on preventing ineligible voters from casting ballots. Support stricter voter ID, proof-of-citizenship requirements, purged voter rolls, and enhanced poll monitoring. View expanded mail-in voting as a fraud risk. The White House has framed these positions as restoring confidence in elections.
Democratic voters and party leadership: Primarily concerned about voter suppression and executive interference. Oppose ICE deployment at polling places, voter roll purges, and restrictions on mail-in voting, which they argue disproportionately affect minority and low-income voters. Many are already preparing legal strategies ahead of November 2026.
Election law experts and nonpartisan observers: Figures like Stephen Richer of the Cato Institute caution that the country lacks a shared baseline definition of electoral fairness, making reform politically intractable. Independent analysts note that documented cases of in-person voter fraud are exceedingly rare, while also acknowledging that voter roll maintenance is a legitimate administrative concern.
What to Watch
- Whether Congress advances any federal election legislation before the November 2026 midterms, particularly around voter ID or mail-in ballot rules.
- Legal actions filed by Democratic attorneys general or civil liberties organisations in response to executive branch election-related directives.
- Post-election polling on whether voters accept the 2026 midterm results as legitimate — a key indicator of whether distrust is deepening or stabilising.