Australia Will Have No Submarines at All if It Abandons AUKUS Defence Official Warns
Deputy secretary Hugh Jeffrey declines to discuss a Plan B as Malcolm Turnbull presses on whether promised nuclear subs will actually arrive
Defence Department deputy secretary Hugh Jeffrey told a Sovereignty and Security Forum in Canberra that defence has been directed to pursue AUKUS and has no alternative plan. "I would not venture into the space about Plan B or Plan C," he said.
The stark admission came under questioning from former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who pressed officials on what Australia would do if the promised Virginia-class and AUKUS-class submarines fail to materialise under Australian command.
The exchange highlights growing anxiety about Australia's submarine capability gap. The country's ageing Collins-class fleet is approaching the end of its service life, and the AUKUS timeline stretches well into the 2030s for the first Virginia-class delivery and into the 2040s for the jointly designed AUKUS submarine.
With the Iran war stretching US military resources and attention, questions about whether Washington will prioritise Australian submarine deliveries over its own naval needs have become more pointed.
Analysis
Why This Matters
Australia is making a multi-hundred-billion-dollar bet on a single defence procurement pathway with no fallback. If AUKUS falters due to US political shifts, industrial capacity constraints, or strategic reprioritisation, the country faces a submarine capability gap that could last decades.
Background
AUKUS was announced in 2021, replacing a French conventional submarine deal. The plan involves Australia acquiring up to five US Virginia-class nuclear submarines before transitioning to a jointly designed AUKUS-class boat.
Key Perspectives
Turnbull's questioning reflects broader concern that AUKUS depends entirely on US goodwill and industrial capacity — both of which are under strain. Defence officials maintain the program is on track.
What to Watch
The upcoming US defence budget cycle and whether submarine production lines can accommodate Australian orders alongside the US Navy's own requirements.