The inflation warning comes as global oil prices continue their upward trajectory, driven by disruptions to Middle Eastern supply routes and uncertainty about the duration and scope of the US-Iran conflict. Brent crude has pushed past 0 per barrel, with further increases expected if the war continues to threaten shipping lanes and production infrastructure.

The timing is particularly painful for Australian households already stretched by years of elevated prices. The Reserve Bank had been cautiously optimistic about the inflation trajectory, but an oil-driven price shock is largely beyond the reach of domestic monetary policy.

The surge also threatens to complicate the federal government economic messaging ahead of any potential election, with cost-of-living pressures already the dominant voter concern.