El Nino May Form in Pacific Ocean, Potentially Pushing 2027 to Record-Breaking Heat
NOAA and Australian Bureau of Meteorology both see signals of El Nino forming later this year
Both the US government National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia Bureau of Meteorology have said some climate models are forecasting an El Nino, though both agencies cautioned that results came with uncertainties.
Experts told the Guardian it was too early to be confident, but there were signals in the spread of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific that suggested an El Nino could form in 2026.
One expert warns that 2027 could be even hotter than the last three years, which have already been the top three warmest on record.
Analysis
Why This Matters
El Nino events amplify global warming effects, leading to more extreme weather, agricultural disruptions, and humanitarian challenges. Coming on the heels of three consecutive record-hot years, another El Nino could have devastating consequences.
Background
El Nino is a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. It typically leads to droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, increased rainfall in the Americas, and overall higher global temperatures.
What to Watch
Climate models will become more reliable as the year progresses. If El Nino does form, governments and aid agencies will need to prepare for increased disaster response needs in 2027.