Last US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Expires This Week, Risking New Arms Race
New START treaty removal ends five decades of nuclear arms control
The expiration comes at a time of heightened global instability, with the milestone contributing to a general collapse of the rules-based international order established after World War II.
The New START treaty, signed in 2010, limits each country to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers. Without it, both nations will have no legally binding constraints on their nuclear arsenals for the first time since the Cold War era.
Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in 2023, citing US support for Ukraine, though both sides claimed to still be adhering to the weapon limits. The complete expiration removes even that framework.
Analysis
Why This Matters
For the first time since the early 1970s, there will be no mutual limits on the world two largest nuclear arsenals. This fundamentally changes the strategic calculus between the superpowers.
Background
Arms control agreements between the US and Russia date back to SALT I in 1972. New START was the last remaining treaty after the collapse of the INF Treaty in 2019 and the Open Skies Treaty in 2020.
Key Perspectives
Arms control experts warn this could trigger a new nuclear arms race at precisely the moment when tensions between nuclear powers are at their highest since the Cold War.
What to Watch
Whether any diplomatic channels remain open for future negotiations, and how China factors into any potential trilateral framework.