A discarded upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched in early 2025 is on a collision course with the Moon, according to astronomers who track near-Earth objects. The 13.8-metre rocket segment is expected to strike the lunar near side at approximately 2:44 am ET on August 5, 2026, travelling at roughly seven times the speed of sound.
Astronomers tracking space debris have confirmed that the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket will collide with the Moon this coming August, adding to a growing list of uncontrolled hardware left in cislunar space.
Bill Gray, developer of the widely used Project Pluto software for tracking near-Earth objects, published a detailed analysis of the predicted impact. According to Gray's calculations, the rocket body — standing 13.8 metres (45 feet) tall with a diameter of 3.7 metres (12 feet) — will hit the lunar surface at 06:44 UTC on August 5.
Because the Moon lacks an atmosphere, the upper stage will not burn up on approach, as it would during a re-entry to Earth. Instead, it will arrive intact, carving a fresh crater into the lunar surface upon impact.
Gray noted that while the Moon will be visible to observers across the eastern half of the United States, Canada, and much of South America at the time of impact, the collision is expected to be too faint to observe through ground-based telescopes. Spacecraft already in lunar orbit, however, may be positioned to image the impact plume or the resulting crater.
This is not the first time a piece of launch hardware has struck the Moon in recent years. In March 2022, a rocket body — initially misidentified as a SpaceX Falcon 9 stage but later attributed to a Chinese Long March 3C rocket — struck the lunar far side, a collision confirmed by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, which subsequently photographed the double-crater the impact left behind.
SpaceX has not yet issued a public statement regarding the projected August impact. The company typically does not maintain operational control over spent upper stages after they complete their primary mission, and international space law does not currently require operators to deorbit or retrieve hardware that drifts into deep space trajectories.
The August event is expected to provide scientists with a rare opportunity to study the composition of the Moon's subsurface material, depending on whether any orbiting assets are able to observe the ejecta cloud or analyse the crater aftermath.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Space debris is no longer just an Earth-orbit problem. Spent rocket stages drifting into lunar space represent an emerging challenge for which no international regulatory framework currently exists, raising questions about long-term stewardship of the Moon as traffic increases.
- Scientific opportunity: Like deliberate NASA impact experiments, uncontrolled strikes can yield data on lunar subsurface composition — but only if assets are in position to observe them, highlighting gaps in current monitoring infrastructure.
- Precedent for accountability: With multiple nations and private operators now sending hardware to cislunar space, this event will likely intensify policy discussions about who bears responsibility for uncontrolled re-entries and impacts.
Background
The accumulation of hardware in cislunar space has accelerated alongside the commercial and governmental space launch boom of the 2020s. Rocket upper stages that achieve high-energy trajectories — such as those used for geostationary or deep-space missions — often lack the fuel reserves needed for a controlled disposal burn, leaving them in chaotic, long-duration orbits that can eventually intersect with the Moon or return to Earth's vicinity.
The issue gained widespread public attention in early 2022, when Bill Gray himself initially identified a piece of space junk on a lunar impact trajectory as a SpaceX Falcon 9 stage, before revising his assessment to indicate it was likely a Chinese Long March 3C upper stage. China disputed that conclusion. NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter later confirmed the impact and found the resulting crater was unusually elongated — possibly double — suggesting the object was tumbling. The episode exposed the difficulty of identifying and tracking deep-space debris.
In 2009, NASA deliberately crashed its LCROSS spacecraft into the lunar south pole to study water ice, demonstrating that lunar impacts can serve scientific purposes. The difference with uncontrolled debris is the absence of planning, coordination, and instrument readiness to capture data.
Key Perspectives
Astronomers and trackers: Researchers like Bill Gray provide a public service by computing these trajectories well in advance, giving space agencies and telescope operators time to prepare observations. They generally view such events as scientifically useful, if unplanned.
Space agencies: NASA and other agencies with assets in lunar orbit, such as the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, may attempt to document the impact crater, turning an accidental event into a data collection opportunity — as they did in 2022.
Critics and space policy advocates: Analysts focused on the long-term sustainability of space operations argue that the lack of enforceable rules for cislunar debris disposal is a governance failure. As lunar missions by commercial operators multiply, the probability of hardware collisions — with the Moon, or eventually with surface infrastructure — will increase without clearer international standards.
What to Watch
- Lunar orbiter positioning: Whether NASA or other agencies manoeuvre existing spacecraft to observe the August 5 impact plume or document the resulting crater in the days following.
- Policy response: Any statements from the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) or national space agencies regarding debris disposal obligations in cislunar space.
- Trajectory refinement: Bill Gray and other trackers will continue refining the impact prediction as August approaches; watch for updates on the precise location and timing, which will determine observability.