The decision not to release strategic reserves signals confidence — or at least projected confidence — that the conflict will not lead to a sustained disruption of global oil supplies. However, analysts have warned that any prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil passes, could trigger a supply crisis that dwarfs anything seen since the 1970s.

The administration confirmed it is holding "no discussions" about using the stockpiles, even as oil futures have already begun to price in the risk of escalation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which holds roughly 350 million barrels, was significantly drawn down during the Biden administration and has not been fully replenished.

Energy markets are closely watching whether Iran attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz as part of its retaliation, a threat Tehran has made repeatedly over the years but has never followed through on.