Event graphs improve LLM stock forecasts across two major markets

RICE-Alpha uses temporally valid corporate event sequences to correct baseline stock scores only when historical transitions provide reliable additional signal.

Research Lab
Tong Liu · Lanmiao Liu · Xiang Hu

Zircon Security · Utrecht University · The Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics · China Life R&D Center

Research Digest··3 min read
Liu, Liu and Hu tested an LLM-agent framework that links company news into issuer-specific event sequences while restricting every forecast to information available at that time.

The authors built RICE-Alpha around two components.

Why this paper

From The Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics and 3 others · Part of Context Engineering for Agents, now 38 papers

In one line

Temporally grounded, reliability-calibrated historical event transitions add incremental stock-forecasting signal when applied as a residual correction to a multi-view LLM forecast.

What we could check

  • ·No code link found
  • ·No weights link found
  • ·No dataset link found
  • ·No compute details found
  • ·No stated limitations found
  • ✓Reports numbers on named benchmarks (2 benchmarks)

Observed from the paper text and links we have. Absence here means we did not find it, not that it does not exist.

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Event graphs improve LLM stock forecasts across two major markets | Zotpaper