Two data centres planned for Buckinghamshire and Bedfordshire in England will emit an estimated 4.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year once fully operational — exceeding the total annual UK emissions of oil giant ExxonMobil — according to new analysis reported by The Guardian. Experts say the projections reveal the "serious threat" the data centre boom poses to the UK's legally binding climate goals.
New analysis, shared exclusively with The Guardian, projects that two data centres planned in Buckinghamshire and Bedfordshire would release 4.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year once fully running — more than ExxonMobil's entire annual emissions inside the UK.
The findings were described by experts as evidence of the "serious threat" that data centre expansion poses to the UK's legally binding climate commitments. Under the Climate Change Act, the UK is bound to successive five-year carbon budgets and a net zero target for 2050.
The comparison is notable because ExxonMobil is one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, yet its UK emissions account for only a small share of its global footprint. The analysis suggests that two as-yet-unbuilt facilities in the home counties would have a larger national carbon impact than the UK operations of a major fossil fuel producer.
The UK has seen surging demand for data centres, driven by cloud computing and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence. The government has treated data centres as critical national infrastructure, streamlined planning rules and promoted "AI growth zones," while separately pledging to decarbonise the electricity system by 2030. Critics argue those goals are now in tension, with the 4.5 million tonnes projected for just two sites likely to grow as more projects come through the pipeline.
Industry groups respond that modern data centres are increasingly energy-efficient, that developers are investing in renewable power purchase agreements, and that operational emissions will fall as the national grid becomes cleaner. They argue that blocking such projects would undermine the UK's ambitions to be a leader in AI and harm economic growth. Some in the sector also caution that projections based on today's grid carbon intensity may not reflect future improvements.
Environmental analysts acknowledge efficiency gains but warn that data centre electricity demand is rising faster than clean power deployment. They point to the risk of new gas-fired generation being commissioned to keep the lights on, and note that planning approvals without conditions could lock in high emissions for decades. Local communities in Buckinghamshire and Bedfordshire have also raised concerns about grid constraints, water use and the visual impact of large facilities.
The planning decisions for the two sites, and any conditions attached, will be watched closely by both sides of the debate. Experts say policymakers must find a way to reconcile rapid infrastructure growth with legally binding climate law — a test that will define whether the UK can expand its digital economy without blowing its carbon budget.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The UK's carbon budgets are legally binding; two data centres would produce emissions equivalent to more than one per cent of the country's annual total, squeezing headroom for other sectors.
- AI-driven demand for computing power is accelerating, making this a precedent-setting case for many more projects already in the pipeline.
- The comparison with ExxonMobil reframes the debate: digital infrastructure is becoming a source of emissions on the scale of the fossil fuel industry, with direct implications for planning policy and public acceptance.
Background
The UK has positioned itself as a leading data centre market, designating the facilities as critical national infrastructure and fast-tracking planning approvals and grid connections. At the same time, the Climate Change Act commits the UK to net zero by 2050, and the independent Climate Change Committee assesses progress against five-year carbon budgets. Government policy has also promised a fully decarbonised electricity system by 2030.
ExxonMobil is one of the world's largest oil companies, but its UK operations are a small part of its global footprint. The projection that two planned facilities in Buckinghamshire and Bedfordshire would exceed that UK footprint highlights how quickly new electricity demand is growing. The 4.5 million tonnes figure reflects ongoing operational emissions once the centres are fully running, and the wider wave of UK data centre construction would add substantially more.
Key Perspectives
Data centre developers and the tech industry: The facilities are essential digital infrastructure for the economy and for AI leadership. Developers point to energy efficiency investments, renewable power procurement, and falling grid carbon intensity over time.
Climate analysts and environmental campaigners: Data centre demand is growing faster than clean energy supply, and the UK's carbon budgets leave no room for large new emission sources. Approvals should be conditional on genuinely additional renewable capacity, not just grid off-take.
UK policymakers and local planners: They face a trade-off between economic growth and climate law. Ministers have encouraged data centre investment, while local authorities in Buckinghamshire and Bedfordshire must weigh national policy against grid capacity, environmental impacts and community concerns.
What to Watch
- Planning decisions for the two sites and whether they carry conditions on energy efficiency, renewable sourcing or backup generation.
- The Climate Change Committee's next statutory progress report, which could respond to data centre demand growth in its assessment of carbon budgets.
- Whether National Grid and the energy regulator can deliver clean power connections fast enough to meet data centre demand without commissioning new gas capacity.
- Corporate renewable deals — whether these projects sign agreements that add new clean energy to the grid rather than diverting existing supply.