The US Space Force is weighing a significant reallocation of satellite launch contracts from United Launch Alliance to SpaceX, a senior military official said Tuesday, following two separate anomalies with ULA's Vulcan rocket in less than 18 months that have stalled progress through a backlog of nearly 70 missions.
The US Space Force is considering moving a 'significant number' of satellite launches from United Launch Alliance (ULA) to SpaceX after repeated technical failures aboard ULA's Vulcan rocket raised concerns about the vehicle's reliability, a three-star general told reporters this week.
The Vulcan rocket, which debuted in January 2024 alongside SpaceX's Falcon 9 as one of the Space Force's two primary launch vehicles, has completed just four flights since its introduction — a slow cadence for a system carrying a backlog of nearly 70 planned missions. Two of those four flights were marred by anomalies involving solid rocket booster exhaust nozzles.
In the first incident, in October 2024, an exhaust nozzle blew off one of Vulcan's solid rocket boosters mid-flight. The same problem appeared to recur during a February 2026 launch. In both cases, the rocket continued to its targeted orbit and delivered its payload successfully, but the repeated nature of the failure mode triggered a second grounding of the vehicle in less than two years — an outcome that has drawn scrutiny from Pentagon procurement officials.
"The experience is likely to influence how the Pentagon buys launch services in the future," the general said, according to Ars Technica's reporting on the briefing.
SpaceX's Falcon 9, by contrast, has accumulated an extensive operational record and maintains a high launch cadence for both government and commercial customers. Moving missions to SpaceX would leverage that proven reliability, though such a shift would also mark a significant blow to ULA, a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that has historically dominated US government launch contracts.
ULA has not publicly commented on the reported Pentagon discussions. The company has previously said it is working to identify and resolve the root cause of the nozzle failures before returning Vulcan to flight.
The Space Force's reassessment reflects broader tensions in the government launch market, where SpaceX's competitive pricing and rapid development pace have increasingly challenged legacy providers. Any formal reallocation of missions would likely require contractual renegotiation under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program, which currently divides launch contracts between ULA and SpaceX to preserve industrial base competition.
No timeline has been announced for a final decision on whether launches will be formally reassigned.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The Space Force's potential shift could accelerate SpaceX's dominance in government launch services, reshaping the competitive landscape for national security space access.
- A large-scale reallocation away from ULA would put financial pressure on the Boeing-Lockheed joint venture at a time when both parent companies face other business challenges, potentially affecting the long-term viability of an alternative to SpaceX.
- The decision will signal how the Pentagon balances industrial base preservation against mission urgency — a debate with implications for future aerospace procurement policy.
Background
The National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program was established to ensure the US military has reliable, independent access to space. For years, ULA's Atlas V was the workhorse of government launches, with a near-perfect reliability record. When Atlas V was set to retire, ULA developed the Vulcan Centaur as its successor, intended to be more cost-competitive with SpaceX's Falcon 9.
SpaceX was formally added as a second NSSL provider in 2020, breaking ULA's long-held monopoly on national security launches. The arrangement was designed to maintain competition and preserve two independent domestic launch providers — a strategic hedge against over-reliance on any single company.
Vulcan's debut in January 2024 was considered a milestone, but the vehicle has since been grounded twice due to the same solid rocket booster nozzle failure mode. Although both anomalous flights reached their intended orbits, the recurrence of the same problem has cast doubt on whether the root cause has been fully understood or corrected.
Key Perspectives
US Space Force: Military officials are prioritizing mission assurance and schedule reliability. With nearly 70 launches in the backlog and a vehicle that has flown just four times, the operational risk of continued delays is significant for satellite constellation timelines and national security objectives.
United Launch Alliance: ULA has a strong interest in demonstrating Vulcan's reliability and retaining its government contracts. The company has invested heavily in Vulcan as its future, and a large-scale loss of missions to SpaceX could threaten its financial viability and workforce.
Critics/Skeptics: Some defence analysts warn that allowing SpaceX to capture an even larger share of government launch contracts could create a new monopoly dependency — the very problem the dual-provider NSSL structure was designed to prevent. Others question whether the solid rocket booster failures, which did not result in mission losses, justify a major contractual restructuring.
What to Watch
- ULA's timeline for identifying and resolving the Vulcan solid rocket booster nozzle failure, and when the rocket may return to flight.
- Any formal announcements from the Space Force or Pentagon regarding NSSL contract modifications or mission reassignments.
- Congressional oversight hearings on national security launch procurement, where lawmakers may weigh in on the industrial base implications of shifting further toward SpaceX.