Thinking Machines in Talks to Raise $1B at $40B Valuation, Report Says

The new round, if completed, would value the company below the $50 billion valuation that Thinking Machines reportedly sought late last year. The startup’s annual revenue run rate stands at over $100 million, according to a source with knowledge of the company’s financials. At that revenue figure, a $40 billion valuation reflects an extraordinarily high revenue multiple.

In July, the company introduced Inkling, an open-weight model that generates revenue by charging usage-based compute fees for adapting models on proprietary data on its Tinker platform. The startup’s prior fundraise — a $2 billion round that stands among the largest seed financings in history — valued the company at $12 billion. Andreessen Horowitz led that investment, joined by Nvidia, GV, Lightspeed, and Conviction Partners. Investors backed the round largely on the pedigree of Murati and the former OpenAI researchers who joined her.

Thinking Machines has since had several high-profile departures, with some of the co-founders, including Lilian Weng and Luke Metz, going back to OpenAI. Accel and Thinking Machines did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Why This Matters

A $40 billion valuation on $100 million in revenue would represent an extraordinary multiple, underscoring the intense investor appetite for top-tier AI talent and the race to back potential winners in the space.
The departure of co-founders back to OpenAI raises questions about the stability of the founding team and whether the company can retain its talent as it scales.
The round's size and structure could signal whether the AI funding boom is moderating or still accelerating, after a reported $50 billion target was lowered.

Background

Thinking Machines was founded in early 2025 by Mira Murati, former CTO of OpenAI, along with several other ex-OpenAI researchers. The startup quickly attracted massive investment, including a $2 billion seed round led by Andreessen Horowitz — one of the largest in history. The company focuses on developing open-weight AI models and offers a platform called Tinker for adapting models on proprietary data. Its first major product, Inkling, was released in July 2026.

Key Perspectives

Investors (Accel, existing backers): View the round as a bet on Murati's leadership and the team's ability to build competitive AI models, despite the premium valuation. The involvement of Accel, a repeat backer, suggests confidence in the company's trajectory. Skeptics (market analysts): May question the sustainability of such a high valuation relative to revenue, especially given the competitive landscape and the departure of key technical talent. The reduced valuation from the $50 billion target could indicate cooling investor sentiment. Critics (industry observers): Point to the high-profile departures of co-founders like Lilian Weng and Luke Metz as a sign of internal challenges, potentially undermining the narrative of a unified team from OpenAI.

What to Watch

Whether the round closes at the reported $40 billion valuation or is adjusted further.
Any additional departures from the founding team, particularly technical leaders.
Revenue growth and adoption of the Inkling model and Tinker platform, which will be key to justifying the valuation over time.

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