American Airlines forecasts deeper loss in 2026, plans to slow growth amid fuel spike

Carrier posts record Q3 revenue but warns full-year loss will be larger than previously expected as Iran war drives jet fuel costs higher

By LineZotpaper

Published22 October 2026

Updated22 October 2026

Read Time3 min

Sources3 outlets

American Airlines has forecast a larger full-year loss for 2026 than previously expected, blaming a sharp spike in jet fuel costs linked to the Iran war, and said it will slow capacity growth next year. The Fort Worth-based carrier now expects to lose between $1 and $1.60 per share on an adjusted basis for the full year, a significant downgrade from its July forecast of up to 65 cents per share profit to a 65-cent loss.

American Airlines on Thursday reported record third-quarter revenue of $16.34 billion, up 19.3% from a year earlier, but a net loss of $269 million, or 41 cents per share. On an adjusted basis, the loss was 28 cents per share, better than the 35 cents analysts had expected.

CEO Robert Isom said the airline had delivered 'record third-quarter revenue and the strongest year-over-year revenue growth in my career, with premium performance leading the way.' He added that investments across the carrier's commercial strategy are working and that American expects 'another quarter of record revenue growth to close out the year.'

The upbeat revenue figures were overshadowed by soaring fuel costs. American's fuel bill rose 67.5% in the third quarter to $4.64 billion. Isom noted that rising fuel costs are the main issue. Jet fuel, airlines' biggest cost after labor, has surged following the start of the Iran war, adding billions of dollars to expenses across the industry. U.S. airfares have risen more than 20% from last year.

For the fourth quarter, American expects to lose between 50 cents and $1.10 per share on an adjusted basis, with revenue up as much as 22.5% and capacity up between 5.5% and 6.5%. For the full year, the carrier now projects a loss of $1 to $1.60 per share, far worse than its previous forecast. The company plans to slow its capacity growth next year in response to the cost pressure.

American is the fourth major U.S. carrier to cut its 2026 outlook this month, following Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines, all of which have slashed their forecasts due to the fuel spike. The stock fell about 4% in premarket trading.

Isom has been under pressure to improve profits at American, which has lagged behind more profitable rivals Delta and United. The airline has been investing in new lounges and revamped cabins with more premium seats. Earlier this month, it named a new network chief, the latest move in a management shake-up that has also included new hires in operations and its commercial team. Last year, American brought in industry veteran Nat Pieper as its new commercial chief.

Analysis

Why This Matters

This is the fourth major U.S. carrier in a month to cut its outlook, signalling a broad industry hit from fuel costs driven by the Iran war.
Higher jet fuel costs are pushing up airfares more than 20% year-on-year, affecting travelers and business customers.
American's decision to slow capacity growth next year could limit flight options and further affect pricing.

Background

The Iran war, which began earlier this year, has caused a sharp spike in global oil prices and, consequently, jet fuel. Jet fuel is the second-largest cost for airlines after labor. The price surge has added billions of dollars to carriers' expenses, eroding profits even as travel demand remains strong. American Airlines, based in Fort Worth, Texas, has been investing heavily in premium cabins and lounges to compete with Delta and United, but has struggled to match their profitability.

Key Perspectives

American Airlines (CEO Robert Isom): The carrier's investments in commercial strategy are working, as shown by record revenue growth. However, rising fuel costs are the main issue driving the loss forecast. The airline expects another quarter of record revenue. Other major U.S. carriers: Delta, United, and Southwest have each cut their own 2026 outlooks this month, citing the same fuel cost pressures, indicating the problem is industry-wide. Critics/Skeptics: Despite record revenue, American continues to post losses and trails more profitable rivals. Management has undergone multiple changes, raising questions about how effectively the airline can control costs outside of fuel.

What to Watch

Jet fuel prices and whether the Iran war escalates or eases, directly affecting airline costs.
American's next quarterly results and whether it can narrow its loss as promised.
Further capacity growth adjustments across the industry as airlines respond to sustained fuel price pressure.
Management stability: the network chief appointment is the latest in a series of leadership changes.

Sources

American Airlines forecasts bigger loss in 2026 on fuel spike, plans to slow growth next year · US Top News and Analysis
American Airlines now expects a full-year loss as jet fuel costs outpace fares · Quartz
American Airlines forecasts bigger loss in 2026 on fuel spike, plans to slow growth next year · Business News

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 9 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedAmerican forecasts a deeper loss in 2026.US Top News and Analysis: “American on Thursday said it expects to lose between $1 and $1.60 a share, on an adjusted basis for the full year.”
SupportedAmerican plans to slow capacity growth next year.US Top News and Analysis: “The carrier plans to slow its capacity growth next year as a result.”
SupportedThe fuel spike linked to the Iran war is behind American’s lower outlook.US Top News and Analysis: “The Fort Worth, Texas-based airline is the fourth major U.S. carrier to cut its forecast for 2026 due to a jump in jet fuel following the start of the Iran war.”
SupportedAmerican expects a full-year adjusted loss of $1 to $1.60 per share.US Top News and Analysis: “American on Thursday said it expects to lose between $1 and $1.60 a share, on an adjusted basis for the full year.”
Partly supportedThe new forecast is a downgrade from July’s forecast of up to 65 cents profit to a 65-cent loss.US Top News and Analysis: “In July, it forecast earnings of up to 65 cents a share to a loss of as low as 65 cents a share.”
SupportedIsom said American delivered “record third-quarter revenue and the strongest year-over-year revenue growth in my career, with premium performance leading the way.”US Top News and Analysis: ““American delivered record third-quarter revenue and the strongest year-over-year revenue growth in my career, with premium performance leading the way,” American CEO Robert Isom said in a news release.”
SupportedIsom said American expects “another quarter of record revenue growth to close out the year.”US Top News and Analysis: ““The investments we are making across the four pillars of our commercial strategy are working, and we expect another quarter of record revenue growth to close out the year.””
SupportedAmerican reported record third-quarter revenue of $16.34 billion, up 19.3% year over year.US Top News and Analysis: “Revenue jumped 19.3% from a year earlier to $16.34 billion.”
SupportedAmerican’s third-quarter fuel bill rose 67.5% to $4.64 billion.US Top News and Analysis: “American's fuel bill was up 67.5% in the third quarter from last year to $4.64 billion.”
Partly supportedU.S. airfares rose more than 20% from last year.US Top News and Analysis: “Rising jet fuel prices have also driven up airfare more than 20% from last year.”
SupportedFor the fourth quarter, American expects an adjusted loss of 50 cents to $1.10 per share, revenue growth up to 22.5%, and capacity growth of 5.5% to 6.5%.US Top News and Analysis: “American forecast it will lose between 50 cents and $1.10 a share, adjusted, in the fourth quarter, with revenue expected to be up as much as 22.5% from a year earlier and capacity up between 5.5% and 6.5%.”