Ra’am and the Joint List are together projected to win 13 seats, potentially giving the Arab-led parties leverage in negotiations over Israel’s next government. Palestinian citizens make up about 20 percent of Israel’s population.
Both Netanyahu’s camp and most leaders of the self-described Zionist opposition have ruled out forming a government with the parties. Nevertheless, Likud has argued that an opposition victory would leave former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, dependent on Arab-led lists.
“There is no Gadi without [Ahmad] Tibi,” a Likud campaign slogan says, referring to the leader of Ta’al, one of the three parties in the Joint List alongside Hadash and Balad.
The Joint List has said it could offer an anti-Netanyahu coalition a “safety net” by not voting against it in a confidence motion, without formally entering government. In exchange, it would seek concessions including a path towards Palestinian statehood and action against organised crime.
Ra’am has also focused its campaign on violent crime in Palestinian communities and discriminatory government policies, including housing. The party entered government in 2021 as part of the broad coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, becoming the first Arab party to join an Israeli government.
Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, said political leaders could reconsider their public positions if the election produced another deadlock. “Netanyahu would work with Ra’am in a heartbeat, if it meant staying in power,” he said. Mekelberg also argued that opposition attacks on Arab-led parties could weaken any future arrangement that depended on their support.
The campaign is Israel’s first national election since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, which killed an estimated 1,200 people and triggered the war in Gaza. Arab-led parties have faced intensified challenges from right-wing politicians seeking to associate them with the attack.
In September, Likud and the far-right Otzma Yehudi party petitioned to bar Ra’am and the Joint List from standing. The Central Elections Committee voted to disqualify both, but the Supreme Court unanimously overturned those exclusions on October 2. It also overturned the disqualification of Hadash politician Ofer Cassif by a 7-2 majority.
Orly Noy, a Balad candidate, said the Joint List was unlikely to enter the next governing coalition but could still seek policy concessions in return for its support. “There’s a lot we can still do that will make people’s lives better,” she said.
Ultra-Orthodox parties could also influence the coalition arithmetic. Shas and United Torah Judaism, which have routinely partnered with Likud, are each polling at about seven or eight seats. Their priorities include maintaining military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students, an issue that has drawn criticism from Netanyahu’s opponents.