Australia swelters through second hottest September on record as snow depth hits zero in Kosciuszko

Bureau of Meteorology data confirms record minimum nighttime temperatures and the influence of El Niño and global heating

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Australia has experienced its second hottest September on record, with the Bureau of Meteorology reporting average temperatures 2.71C above the long-term average. The extreme heat, driven by a combination of global heating and a strengthening El Niño, also produced the hottest minimum night-time temperatures for any September on records dating back to 1910, and pushed snow depth in the Kosciuszko National Park to zero for the first time since monitoring began in 1954.

Bureau of Meteorology data showed that averaged temperatures ranked in the top five warmest Septembers for every state and territory, and the sixth hottest for the Northern Territory. Minimum night-time temperatures across the continent averaged 2.52C above the norm, narrowly surpassing the previous record of 2.51C set in 2023.

In New South Wales, 45 separate locations recorded their warmest September on record. Nationally, the bureau confirmed that Australia has not recorded a September with below-average mean temperatures since 2004, underscoring the long-term warming trend.

Alpine regions were hit particularly hard. The snow depth in Kosciuszko National Park fell to zero during September for the first time since records started in 1954. Dr Linden Ashcroft, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, said the data pointed to a clear driver. "There's only one clear driver of this and that's climate change," he said. "This is also a clear example of seasonal creep where winter is ending earlier and spring is starting sooner." Dr Ashcroft noted that global heating has warmed the continent by more than 1.5C since country-wide records began in 1910.

Rainfall patterns were also extreme. All states and territories recorded below-average rainfall for September except Western Australia, which had its second wettest September on record and its wettest since 1904.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The extreme heat across a dry continent raises the risk of a severe bushfire season, threatening lives, property, and ecosystems.
  • Zero snow depth in the alpine region signals accelerating "seasonal creep", with winter tourism livelihoods and unique alpine species facing an uncertain future.
  • The record reinforces that Australia, a country highly vulnerable to climate impacts, is experiencing warming well above the global average, with major implications for adaptation planning.

Background

Australia's climate has been steadily warming. The Bureau of Meteorology's records, stretching back to 1910, show a clear upward trend in temperatures driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Naturally occurring climate drivers like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can exacerbate or moderate this warming. The 2026 spring season follows a confirmed El Niño event, which typically brings hotter and drier conditions to eastern Australia. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2C, yet the Australian continent has already warmed by more than 1.5C.

Key Perspectives

[Climate scientists]: Dr Linden Ashcroft of the University of Melbourne identifies climate change as the clear driver, pointing to the long-term trend and the phenomenon of "seasonal creep" as winters shorten and springs start earlier. [Emergency and fire services]: Must plan for an extended and intensified fire season in southern Australia, relying on bureau forecasts and climate models to allocate resources and issue community warnings. [Tourism and agriculture industries]: Alpine operators face shortened ski seasons and uncertain long-term viability. Farmers across the southeast contend with dry conditions and water shortages, while Western Australian growers experienced an abnormally wet month. [Critics/Skeptics]: May attribute the record heat primarily to the natural variability of the strong El Niño event, questioning the degree to which a single month's records can be conclusively linked to long-term climate change without specific attribution studies.

What to Watch

  • The upcoming Spring and Summer bushfire outlook from the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC).
  • The duration and strength of the current El Niño pattern in the Pacific and its transition to a potential La Niña.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin as the warmer months and dry conditions progress.

Sources

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