Bellway boss says Your First Home scheme could lift annual output by 10%

Builder sees path back to 10,000 homes a year as government details of England-only programme near

By LineZotpaper
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The chief executive of British housebuilder Bellway has said the government's Your First Home scheme for first-time buyers could increase the number of homes the company builds each year by about 10%, offering a path back to at least 10,000 completions a year.

Jason Honeyman, who has led Bellway since 2017, welcomed the programme, which was announced by Andy Burnham a fortnight ago and sent housebuilders' shares up by more than 10%. Full details, including the launch date, are expected to be set out by John Healey in his first budget as chancellor on 28 October.

Your First Home applies only to England and is aimed at prospective first-time buyers of new-build flats or houses. Buyers will be offered a government-backed equity loan worth 20% of the purchase price, with a minimum deposit of just 2.5%. The scheme is more targeted than previous help-to-buy initiatives, featuring household income caps to exclude those with large salaries and price caps to restrict purchases to modest homes.

"Based upon our past experience with help to buy, the new scheme has the potential to boost volumes by around 10%, and with a market recovery, provide a path back to at least 10,000 homes a year and a return on equity of 15%," Honeyman said.

He cautioned that the scheme could weigh on the market in the near term, as some buyers wait for the initiative to launch. Bellway is targeting between 9,000 and 9,400 homes in the current year, down from 9,695 last year, reflecting a lower order book and "ongoing pressures on customer demand" alongside construction costs rising at between 3% and 4%.

Its forward order book stands at 4,981 homes worth £1.4bn, compared with 5,285 homes valued at £1.5bn a year earlier. Bellway expects the average selling price to be flat over the coming year at about £325,000. The chief executive's comments came after the company beat analysts' expectations.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The scheme is a central plank of the government's push to address a chronic shortage of homes in England, with housing made a top priority.
  • The 2.5% minimum deposit and 20% equity loan could materially lower the barrier to entry for first-time buyers.
  • Bellway's forecast implies the scheme could accelerate national housebuilding volumes if other builders see similar effects.

Background

The Your First Home programme is an England-only initiative designed to help first-time buyers purchase new-build properties through a government-backed equity loan. It is more tightly targeted than earlier help-to-buy schemes, with income and price caps intended to focus support on modest homes and lower-earning households. Housebuilders' shares jumped more than 10% on the surprise announcement two weeks ago, and the sector is now awaiting full details in the chancellor's first budget.

Key Perspectives

[Bellway]: The builder sees the scheme as a genuine volume driver, citing past experience with help-to-buy, and expects it to support a recovery toward 10,000 homes a year and a 15% return on equity. [Prospective first-time buyers]: The low deposit and equity loan make new-build ownership more accessible, though some may delay purchases until the scheme formally launches. [Critics/Skeptics]: The scheme could simply pull demand forward, weighing on the market in the near term, and its effect depends on price caps and income limits being set at workable levels. Construction cost inflation of 3% to 4% also continues to pressure margins.

What to Watch

  • The 28 October budget, when John Healey is expected to announce launch timing and full scheme details.
  • Whether Bellway's forward order book, currently down year on year, stabilises as launch approaches.
  • How the income and price caps are set, which will determine how many buyers qualify.
  • Early signals from other major housebuilders on whether they expect a similar 10% volume boost.

Sources

Zotpaper

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