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Carroll's popularity slides 9 points as Wilson gains ground in Victorian election race

Resolve poll shows the contest fought on the Coalition's preferred ground of economy, financial management and crime

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time2 min
Sources3 outlets
Premier Ben Carroll's personal popularity has fallen 9 points to minus 11, while Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has climbed 4 points to a likeability rating of 23, according to the latest Resolve Political Monitor, as Victorians weigh up their choice at next month's state election.

The poll, conducted for this masthead, shows Labor stuck on 25 per cent primary support, the Coalition unmoved on 28 per cent and One Nation steady on 23 per cent. If replicated on November 28, these numbers would almost certainly deliver a change of government, though it remains unclear whether the Coalition could form a majority without the help of One Nation or another minor party.

The campaign is being fought overwhelmingly on the Coalition's preferred ground, with the economy, financial management and crime the dominant issues on voters' minds.

The only significant movers in the latest poll were the Victorian Greens, who recorded a 3-point boost to their primary support, their first sign of electoral growth in three years. This came at the expense of independents, who attracted just 4 per cent of support among the 1,000 respondents surveyed, raising the possibility of stronger preference flows to Labor in some seats if replicated on election day.

Resolve founder Jim Reed said one of the key findings was that people were now paying closer attention. "Fewer and fewer voters are telling us they are uncommitted," he said.

Early polling in Victoria opens in just over six weeks.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Victoria is likely to see a change of government at the November 28 election if current primary vote numbers hold.
  • The Coalition may need One Nation or another minor party to govern, raising the prospect of minority government and deal-making.
  • A Greens revival could shift preference flows and significantly affect Labor's prospects in individual seats.

Background

Victoria votes on November 28, with the campaign dominated by economic management, financial discipline and crime. Ben Carroll is Labor's newest leader, having recently taken over the premiership, and the poll suggests voters have weighed him up and are not convinced. Jess Wilson leads the opposition Coalition and has established strong personal popularity. The Resolve Political Monitor surveys around 1,000 respondents and has been tracking the contest through a campaign that has so far been fought on terrain favourable to the Coalition.

Key Perspectives

Labor and Premier Carroll: The incumbent government faces a sharp decline in its leader's personal standing, with primary support stalled at 25 per cent, well behind the Coalition. Coalition and Jess Wilson: Gaining economic traction with a popular leader, but facing uncertainty over whether it can secure a majority outright or would need support from One Nation or another minor party. Minor parties: One Nation holds steady at 23 per cent, making it a potential kingmaker, while the Greens' 3-point rise could redirect preferences toward Labor in key seats.

What to Watch

  • Whether primary vote shares shift as early voting opens in just over six weeks.
  • Preference flows from the Greens and independents, which could decide marginal seats.
  • Whether the Coalition reaches a majority or must negotiate with One Nation to form government on November 28.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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