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Emergency doctors warn of ‘terrifying’ crisis as report projects 411 per cent surge in patients aged 85 and over by 2050

Australasian College of Emergency Medicine releases State of Emergency 2026 report, calling for urgent action on bed block and corridor care

By LineZotpaper
Published
Updated
Read Time2 min
Sources4 outlets
Australia's health system is unprepared for a coming wave of elderly patients, with projections showing a 411 per cent increase in patients aged 85 and over presenting to emergency departments by 2050, according to the Australasian College of Emergency Medicine's State of Emergency 2026 report. The report, released at Parliament House in Canberra, warns that older patients are routinely left in hospital corridors to deteriorate while waiting for a bed, putting them at greater risk of death within seven days of presentation.

The report, released on Tuesday, paints a dire picture of an already strained system facing an ageing population. College president Dr Peter Allely described the situation as terrifying. "When you've got a 97-year-old sitting in a plastic chair overnight waiting for care, we're failing, and it's downright embarrassing that this is happening every day," Allely said.

Data in the report shows that people aged 65 and over accounted for one quarter of the 9 million presentations to emergency departments in 2023-24, a 16 per cent increase in attendances compared to 2018-19. By contrast, attendances among younger people rose only 4 per cent over the same period.

The latest intergenerational report projects that by 2030, one in five Australians will be aged 65 or older. ACEM Victoria branch chair Associate Professor Mark Putland said the health system was at a tipping point and could expect things to get much worse without action. The college's NSW spokesperson, Dr Clare Skinner, said the fact people were living longer was a success but the system was not keeping up.

Bed block — where patients cannot be admitted from emergency departments to full hospital wards — was delaying care for older patients with complex conditions. The report warns this flow-on pressure is affecting hospitals across the country.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The report warns that elderly and frail patients are being put at greater risk of death within seven days of presentation due to delays in admission.
  • Australia's rapidly ageing population means the problem will intensify, with projections showing a 411 per cent increase in the oldest patients by 2050.
  • The findings add pressure on federal and state governments to invest in hospital capacity, aged care and community health services before the system becomes overwhelmed.

Background

Australia's hospital emergency departments have long faced crowding and access block, where patients wait hours or days for inpatient beds. The Australasian College of Emergency Medicine has repeatedly called for better integration of hospital and aged care services. The State of Emergency reports have documented worsening conditions, but the 2026 edition is the first to include the 2050 projection. The federal government's intergenerational report has confirmed the population is ageing faster than expected, with one in five Australians expected to be over 65 by 2030.

Key Perspectives

Australasian College of Emergency Medicine: The college argues the current system is failing, with elderly patients routinely left in corridors. It calls for increased hospital funding, more sub-acute and aged care beds, and better discharge planning to free up hospital capacity. State health departments: While not quoted in the sources, state governments are responsible for hospital funding and operations. They face competing budget pressures and have previously cited workforce shortages and infrastructure constraints. The report will likely be used to argue for more federal funding in upcoming negotiations. Critics/Skeptics: Some may question whether the 2050 projections are realistic given potential changes in healthcare delivery, technology, or preventive health. However, the immediate trends in ED attendances already show a significant increase in older patients, lending weight to the college's warnings.

What to Watch

  • Whether the federal government responds with additional funding in the next budget for hospital capacity and aged care.
  • State government announcements on new emergency department and sub-acute bed investments.
  • Ongoing reports of ambulance ramping and ED waiting times as indicators of whether the situation deteriorates further.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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