The CCN, representing county councils across England, published forecasts on Tuesday showing that councils expect to reach £5bn in new Send debts by April 2027 and see that figure double to £10bn by 2028. The government recently cleared more than £5bn in historic Send liabilities, but the new projections indicate that this relief has been temporary.
The acceleration in EHCP applications is partly attributed to parents and schools acting to secure mandated support before the government introduces reforms aimed at shifting toward a more inclusive model of Send provision in mainstream schools. The Fonagy report, commissioned by the government and published last week, acknowledged that the rise in neurodevelopmental and mental health conditions among young people is real and causes significant distress, but warned that current demand for support is unsustainable without new approaches to manage pressure on public services.
Linden Kemkaran, the CCN’s Send spokesperson, said the deficits are not the result of reckless spending by councils but of having to meet rapidly growing statutory demand without matching funding. She warned that if councils are left carrying billions of pounds of Send debt, taxpayers and communities will ultimately bear the consequences, and children will face longer waits for support while educational outcomes stagnate.
The CCN is calling on ministers to guarantee future Send debts run up by local authorities, arguing that some councils face effective bankruptcy if forced to meet their legal duties without additional financial backing.