Ethiopian government forces seize Tigray capital Mekelle as TPLF withdraws

Rebel group says it has 'temporarily moved out' of the city after federal army and allied militia recaptured the main airport

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Ethiopian government forces and pro-government fighters have recaptured Mekelle, the capital of the northern region of Tigray, after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) withdrew from the city, sources confirmed on Sunday.

The TPLF, which leads an armed opposition alliance, announced on social media late on Saturday that it had 'temporarily moved out of Mekelle' to 'operate from somewhere else'. The announcement came hours after federal troops and allied forces recaptured the city's main airport, according to reports.

A source close to the Tigray Peace Forces, a pro-government militia, told Reuters that its fighters had entered Mekelle's centre on Saturday afternoon, followed by the Ethiopian military. A humanitarian source and a Mekelle resident who asked not to be named confirmed the city was under government control.

Separately, a humanitarian source told AFP that staff on the ground said the TPLF had abandoned the regional capital: 'Ethiopian federal forces and allied forces have reportedly been observed in Mekelle city … across various locations.'

The latest fighting began on September 23 after seven armed and political groups announced an alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establishing an interim administration. The hostilities followed the collapse of a 2022 peace deal that ended a previous devastating war between the federal government and Tigray forces, which killed hundreds of thousands of people.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the opposition coalition. Khartoum and Cairo have denied involvement. Eritrea, which fought alongside Ethiopia's federal army in the 2020-2022 war, severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia over the accusations.

On Saturday, the United States urged Ethiopia and Eritrea 'to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors, exercise maximum restraint and return to dialogue and cooperation'. The US State Department warned that the increasing tensions 'have the potential to affect the entire region'.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The fall of Mekelle marks a major strategic shift in the renewed conflict, potentially consolidating government control over Tigray and intensifying a war that has already caused immense suffering.
  • The involvement of regional actors such as Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt raises the risk of a broader interstate conflict that could destabilise the Horn of Africa.
  • The collapse of the 2022 peace deal shows the fragility of negotiated settlements and the potential for cycles of violence in Ethiopia.

Background

The TPLF began as an armed movement against Ethiopia's military government in the 1970s and later became the dominant force in a coalition that governed Ethiopia for nearly three decades until 2018, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power. Relations between Abiy's government and the TPLF deteriorated, culminating in war in November 2020. That conflict killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions before a peace deal was signed in 2022. The current fighting erupted on September 23 when an alliance of armed and political groups announced a campaign to remove Abiy's government.

Key Perspectives

Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF): The group says it withdrew from Mekelle temporarily to continue operations elsewhere, framing it as a tactical move rather than a defeat. Ethiopian federal government: By retaking the regional capital, the government reasserts its authority over Tigray and strengthens its position against the opposition alliance. Regional actors (Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt): Ethiopia accuses them of backing the opposition; all three deny involvement. Eritrea has cut diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. The US has called for restraint. United States: The US urges Ethiopia and Eritrea to de-escalate and return to dialogue, warning of wider regional consequences.

What to Watch

  • Whether the TPLF launches counter-operations from new positions or seeks to reclaim Mekelle.
  • International response, including potential peace initiatives or sanctions, from the US, African Union and United Nations.
  • Movements of Eritrean forces along the border, which could signal direct intervention or further escalation.

Sources

Zotpaper

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