Euro slides to 17-month low as French debt fears rattle markets

Political uncertainty in France and Spain adds to eurozone jitters, with French bond yields at highest since 2002

By LineZotpaper
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The euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar in 17 months on Monday, dropping below $1.12 as investors grew concerned over France’s rising debt costs and political uncertainty ahead of next year’s presidential election, with Spain’s snap election adding to eurozone instability.

The single currency fell as much as 0.8% in early trading to below $1.12, its lowest since May 2025, before recovering slightly. It has declined about 1.2% this month, accelerating a drop of roughly eight cents from a peak of $1.20 in January.

France’s Cac 40 index fell 1% on Monday, while the FTSE 100 rose 0.2% and Germany’s Dax was little changed. Investors pointed to France’s fiscal position as the main driver of the sell-off. The yield on French 10-year government bonds hit its highest level since 2002 last week before dipping on Friday, widening the gap between French and German borrowing costs to its widest since the 2012 eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

The minority government of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has announced plans for €54bn in savings to curb the budget deficit, involving cuts to pensions and government department funding, excluding defence. The measures face political resistance amid strikes and protests, with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist administration under pressure ahead of the presidential election, where the far-right National Rally party is gaining ground.

Adding to uncertainty, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election after rightwing parties blocked emergency housing legislation. “Europe is taking the spotlight at the start of the week, as fiscal and political concerns hit the bloc,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “France is the epicentre of the concerns; however, Spain is also set to get ready for an early election, which is adding to investor worries.”

The sell-off in European sovereign debt comes amid a global bond rout triggered by the ongoing war in Iran.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • A sustained euro decline could push up import costs for eurozone countries and complicate European Central Bank policy.
  • Widening French-German bond spreads signal rising risk premiums, potentially increasing borrowing costs for France and other indebted eurozone members.
  • Political uncertainty in both France and Spain may delay fiscal reforms needed to stabilise public finances.

Background

France faces a stretched budget deficit and rising debt levels, with the government proposing €54bn in spending cuts. The austerity plan has sparked protests and strikes, and the upcoming presidential election makes further reforms uncertain. Spain’s snap election adds another layer of political instability to the eurozone, which is already grappling with the economic fallout from the war in Iran.

Key Perspectives

Investors: Concerned about France’s ability to control its deficit amid political fragmentation, they are pricing in higher risk, reflected in rising bond yields and the euro sell-off. French Government: Argues that spending cuts are necessary to maintain fiscal credibility, but faces opposition from unions and political rivals, including the far-right National Rally. Markets: The simultaneous decline in European bonds and the euro suggests a broader reassessment of eurozone risk, with Spain’s snap election compounding the unease.

What to Watch

  • The trajectory of French 10-year bond yields and the spread against German bunds.
  • Any new fiscal announcements from the French government or the ECB.
  • The outcome of Spain’s snap election and its impact on investor confidence.

Sources

Zotpaper

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