European leaders issue coordinated warnings of increased Russian threats

Poland, France, Denmark and others cite intelligence assessments of hybrid attacks, sabotage and tests of NATO resolve

By LineZotpaper

Published26 September 2026

Read Time2 min

Over the past week, leaders from at least half a dozen European countries have warned their citizens of growing and more direct threats from Russia, including potential hybrid drone and missile strikes on NATO territory, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and efforts to test the alliance's collective defence commitment under Article 5.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk set the tone last week when he told parliament that intelligence assessments indicate Russia could launch "hybrid drone and missile strikes" against Poland and other NATO countries supporting Ukraine, while portraying them as accidental. Such attacks, he said, would test whether NATO would invoke Article 5, under which an attack on one member is treated as an attack on all. "These possibilities have been discussed for some time, but the information is now highly consistent and, unfortunately, convincing," Tusk said. He urged "mental readiness to face difficult tests."

French President Emmanuel Macron echoed Tusk's warnings, calling them "sound and well-documented", and summoned leaders of France's political parties to an emergency briefing at the Elysee Palace to discuss Ukraine, Iran and the growing energy crisis. Guillaume Lacroix, leader of the Radical Party of the Left, left the meeting saying: "At the age of 50, I have rarely felt such vertigo." Macron announced a new critical infrastructure protection plan and warned: "No one is safe."

Last weekend, France, the Netherlands, Finland, Lithuania and Switzerland each separately warned their citizens of increased threats from Russia. On Thursday, the Danish government's defence intelligence service released an assessment concluding that Russia would increase its hybrid warfare and sabotage threats to NATO nations, "with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past."

The specific concerns go beyond cyber interference or the occasional drone over NATO airspace. Recent sabotage incidents — including several railway line attacks in the Netherlands and France, at least one causing injuries, and suspicious fires near explosive manufacturing plants — have raised fears that Russia may be targeting critical infrastructure as it concentrates more on civilian targets in countries supporting Ukraine.

Le Monde reported this week that a growing number of experts argue the term "hybrid warfare" should be abandoned and the actions simply called "war".

Analysis

Why This Matters

European citizens face a more immediate threat of physical attacks and sabotage on their home soil, not just cyber or espionage.
The warnings signal a potential escalation in Russia's confrontation with NATO, moving from deniable operations toward overt hybrid strikes that could trigger Article 5.
Governments are preparing their populations and infrastructure for a new phase of conflict, with implications for energy security, transport networks and public safety.

Background

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO allies have supported Kyiv with weapons, intelligence and training. Moscow has responded with a range of hybrid activities — cyber attacks, disinformation, energy coercion, and suspected sabotage — across Europe. The current warnings represent the most coordinated and explicit public alert from multiple national leaders, suggesting intelligence agencies see a step-change in Russian willingness to target NATO member states directly.

Key Perspectives

European leaders (Poland, France, Denmark, Baltic states): Emphasise a consistent and convincing intelligence picture that Russia plans hybrid drone and missile strikes, infrastructure sabotage, and efforts to test NATO's cohesion. Tusk's detailed scenario and Macron's emergency briefing reflect high-level concern. NATO alliance: The warnings implicitly call on the alliance to reaffirm its collective defence commitment and prepare for scenarios that deliberately blur the line between accident and attack. Critics and experts: Some analysts, as reported by Le Monde, argue the term "hybrid warfare" minimises what is effectively war by other means, and that Western publics need a clearer understanding of the threat.

What to Watch

Any further sabotage incidents in European countries, particularly those that cause casualties or disrupt critical services.
Official NATO statements or exercises that signal preparedness for hybrid attacks invoking Article 5.
Russia's reaction to these public warnings — whether it escalates, denounces them, or maintains its current denial of hybrid operations.

Sources

A week of warnings reveals Europe's dangerous new reality — Just In