Thursday 15 October 2026
Night Edition
ZOTPAPER

News without the noise

ZOTPAPER
World

Haredi conscription exemption moves to centre of Israel's election

Growing ultra-Orthodox community and an IDF shortfall of 12,000 soldiers shape the Oct. 27 campaign

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time2 min
Israel's Oct. 27 national election is increasingly turning on the role of the country's fastest-growing population group, the ultra-Orthodox Haredi community, as the military warns of a shortfall of up to 12,000 soldiers and non-Haredi Israelis demand a fairer sharing of wartime burdens.

According to analysis published by Foreign Policy, the Haredi community has become a central issue in the campaign. Ultra-Orthodox Israelis have an average fertility rate of about 6.5 children per woman, and by 2050 nearly one in four Israelis is projected to be Haredi.

Haredim largely resist compulsory military service and their contribution to the formal economy is limited. Many Haredi women work, but a large proportion of men devote themselves to Torah study. The community has fiercely guarded its way of life, using its political influence in coalition governments and presenting itself as the guardian of Jewish spirituality.

Since Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has fought prolonged wars in Gaza and Lebanon as well as a confrontation with Iran, increasing the demand for military personnel. Non-Haredi Israelis have become increasingly vocal in opposing what they see as an unfair distribution of the burden: risking their lives while Haredi men remain at home.

The Israel Defense Forces has warned of a shortage of as many as 12,000 soldiers and has called on the ultra-Orthodox to help fill the gap. Around 80,000 Haredim aged 18 to 24 are reportedly believed to be eligible for military service but have not enlisted. If they continue to refuse and their numbers keep growing, the proportion of the population available for military service will shrink over time, deepening divisions within Israeli society.

§

Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The election result will determine whether Israel changes course on Haredi conscription and how wartime burdens are shared.
  • The IDF's warning of a 12,000-soldier shortage makes the exemption a military question, not only a social one.
  • Demographic projections mean the pool of available conscripts will keep shrinking if the pattern continues.

Background

Ultra-Orthodox parties have long used their place in coalition governments to secure exemptions and preserve a way of life centred on Torah study. The wars that followed Oct. 7, 2023 increased the demand for troops and sharpened resentment among non-Haredi Israelis, many of whom serve in combat and reserve roles while the fastest-growing community largely stays out of the military and, to a significant degree, the formal economy.

Key Perspectives

Haredi community: Sees its way of life as a spiritual safeguard for the Jewish people and has guarded it fiercely through political leverage, with women contributing to the economy while many men study. Non-Haredi Israelis: Increasingly question why they must risk their lives in prolonged wars while Haredi men of draft age do not enlist, and view the exemption as a privilege the country can no longer afford. IDF and defence planners: Warn that the military is short of personnel and that the eligible share of the population will shrink as the Haredi community grows.

What to Watch

  • The Oct. 27 result and how much coalition leverage Haredi parties hold afterward.
  • Any legislative change to the definition of who is Haredi, which could close the loophole that leaves around 80,000 draft-age men outside the military.
  • Whether Haredi enlistment rises or the IDF's projected shortfall widens in the coming year.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

How we workSubscribe