A day after the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the beginning of Israel's war on Gaza, Hezbollah decided to join the conflict, saying it was in support of the Palestinian people. Analysts now say that decision has forever shaped Lebanese politics and dealt a major blow to Hezbollah's standing.
"Hezbollah got sucked into a vortex which culminated in the decapitation of their leadership and the invasion of south Lebanon," Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of a book about Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera. "That dealt Hezbollah a major blow to their popular standing and galvanised the election of Joseph Aoun as president and the formation of a new government that took a much stronger line against [the group]."
Before October 7, Hezbollah was the strongest political and military actor in Lebanon. The Iranian-backed group's influence extended across the region; it was a key ally of the al-Assad regime in Syria and had links with allies in places such as Iraq and Yemen. In Lebanon, Hezbollah had key electoral influence and was not against deploying its supporters against movements opposed to it, as in 2019 when they beat back protesters calling for political reform.
In the months leading up to October 2023, Hezbollah's confidence was on display, with analysts pointing to a military parade in south Lebanon and the group erecting tents in the Shebaa Farms, territory Lebanon considers occupied by Israel. At the time, Israel was roiled by protests, and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was delivering speeches predicting Israel's imminent doom. The decision to join the fight against Israel, however, drew the group into a war that it could not control.
Analysts say the group underestimated the depth of Israel's intelligence penetration, which later manifested in the bloody September 2024 pager attack and the assassination of much of Hezbollah's leadership, including Nasrallah. While Hezbollah has not been defeated, despite claims from some critics, it is no longer the political or military hegemon it once was.