The IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday under the title "Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices". For Australia, the update slightly downgrades growth forecasts over the next couple of years, though the big downgrades came last October, before the US and Israel's war with Iran. The author notes the downgrades since April are within the margin of error.
Australia's growth forecast for this year places it in the top half of advanced OECD nations, and only behind the US among the G7 countries. The inflation forecast is not much changed from April, up a bit, but the IMF still expects inflation to be below 3% by next year.
The Australian Financial Review has reported the figures mean Australia's inflation will be among the highest across the OECD next year. Jericho disputes the significance of that ranking, writing that if inflation is between 2% and 3%, arguing over who has the lowest is "pretty silly".
The column is sharply critical of the IMF's framing. Jericho argues the fund, by rule, always sees a need to cut spending and lower taxes, and is in the Margaret Thatcher mould of "the medicine is harsh but the patient requires it". He contrasts this with the political reality facing the Albanese government, noting the IMF does not need to worry about elections or the political cost of interest rates and inflation.
The outlook's title marks a shift from previous editions, which were named "Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim", "Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces", "Global Economy in the Shadow of War", and "Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology". Jericho argues there has been nothing steady in a world that has included Donald Trump threatening Greenland and launching an insurgency into Venezuela.