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Iran conflict 'nowhere near over,' warns analyst as US war strategy faces scrutiny

President Trump's March offensive against Iran is criticised as a model of how not to conduct war, with Tehran seen as having options to escalate

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time2 min
An opinion piece published by The Age on Sunday, October 4, 2026, paints a grim picture of the US war with Iran, describing it as a strategic failure from which Tehran could still choose to escalate. The columnist, Nicholas Kristof, notes that nine days after launching the conflict in early March, President Donald Trump held a news conference claiming 'military success, the likes of which people haven't seen', but argues that the war has instead made everything worse.

Writing for The Age, columnist Nicholas Kristof says Trump's war with Iran 'should be taught for decades as a model of how not to conduct either war or foreign policy'. He characterises it as an example of hubris leading a presidency to seek military solutions for complex global problems, with the result being further deterioration.

Kristof quotes Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, who writes in a Foreign Affairs essay that 'the unsettling reality is that the conflict is nowhere near over'. The column suggests Iran retains the capacity to escalate the war, contradicting Trump's early claims of a decisive victory.

The article, titled 'Why Iran could choose to escalate the war', notes that Trump said in his news conference that 'the result will be lower oil prices', but the columnist implies the opposite has occurred. No further details on the current state of the conflict or specific oil prices are provided in the article.

The Age identifies the piece as opinion and marks it with categories for 'Middle East' and 'Middle East at war'.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The conflict threatens to destabilise oil markets and global energy supplies, with potential knock-on effects for economies worldwide.
  • The war's trajectory will shape US foreign policy credibility and the broader balance of power in the Middle East.
  • If Iran chooses to escalate, the conflict could draw in regional proxies and increase civilian casualties.

Background

The US has had a fraught relationship with Iran for decades, marked by the 1979 hostage crisis, sanctions, and tensions over Iran's nuclear programme. President Trump adopted a confrontational posture early in his second term. According to the source, he launched direct military action against Iran in March 2026, promising swift victory.

Key Perspectives

Trump administration: The president declared early military success and asserted that the war would deliver lower oil prices, framing it as a decisive operation. Analysts and critics: Columnist Nicholas Kristof and crisis analyst Ali Vaez argue the war was poorly conceived and far from over. They highlight the risk that Iran, despite initial setbacks, retains the ability to prolong or escalate hostilities. Iran: While the source does not quote Iranian officials directly, the article implies Tehran faces a choice about whether to escalate, suggesting it has not been neutralised.

What to Watch

  • Statements from Iranian leadership about potential retaliation or further military action.
  • Oil price movements and any disruption to supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Signs of diplomatic backchannels or international mediation efforts.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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