Michelle Landry, who has held the central Queensland electorate for the Liberal National Party since 2013, said she would serve out her term and wanted to give the party time to find a replacement. In announcing her retirement, she criticised One Nation for what she described as telling her what to do. “There's some people out there that have told me that I need to stand aside and resign so that they can come in, and that's certainly not Matt. That's people like our mates in One Nation,” she said.
Canavan, who has long been expected to contest the seat, declined to comment on his own future, saying the day should be about celebrating Landry's achievements. LNP insiders said Canavan was the party's best hope of holding off One Nation, which has surged in the polls. A source with knowledge of party matters, speaking anonymously, said Landry's personal popularity was a key factor in polling, while another source said Canavan offered an “easy narrative for us”.
One Nation's James Ashby, who lives in the same Yeppoon area as Canavan within the seat, told this masthead he had not yet decided whether to stand and would make a decision in the new year.
Capricornia, once a Labor-leaning seat, has been won by Landry at the past five elections. At the 2025 poll, she recorded a primary vote of 36.56%, Labor's Emily Mawson 31.9%, and One Nation's Cheryl Kempton 15.5%. Landry's two-party preferred vote was 55.8% to Labor's 43.41%. Mawson, who increased Labor's primary by nearly 4% at the 2025 election, is highly rated internally, and a source said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is eager for her to run again.
Psephologist Antony Green said Queensland was probably the most likely state to elect two One Nation senators at the expense of the LNP. In Capricornia, he said Canavan would be running on his own name rather than the party ticket, and that One Nation would need to lead on first preferences to win, as Labor would not preference them.