Lula and Bolsonaro close campaigns as Brazil heads to knife-edge first-round vote

Polls point to a likely October 25 run-off, with Washington's interest in the race becoming a flashpoint

By LineZotpaper
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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro wrapped up their campaigns on Saturday, each predicting victory in Sunday's first-round presidential election, even as polls showed a tightening race that most expect to be settled in a run-off.

Lula, 80, closed his re-election bid with a march through Sao Paulo that his campaign called a record crowd for a closing rally. "Tomorrow, we're going to win the elections in the first round," he told supporters, describing Sunday's vote as a choice between "democracy and barbarism" and promising to "defeat the far right". He has also framed the election as a test of Brazil's sovereignty, warning against "meddling" by Washington.

Bolsonaro, 45, led a motorcycle caravan through towns in Sao Paulo state, echoing the campaign style of his father, before rallying later in Rio de Janeiro. "I am convinced that everything is in place for us to win this election in the first round," he said. The senator is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula, and was photographed at his rally holding a portrait of his father.

The final days of the campaign were also rattled by a bomb scare outside the Supreme Court that led to a scheduled election debate being cancelled.

US President Donald Trump has not formally endorsed Bolsonaro but has said he is watching the election "very closely", a level of interest that has become a flashpoint. Lula's supporters have seized on it as evidence Washington is trying to meddle, while some Bolsonaro supporters, frustrated by the cost of living, say they would welcome US pressure if it helped force change at home.

Polls released on Saturday suggested Lula remained ahead but with a narrowing lead. With neither candidate expected to win outright on Sunday, the race would go to a run-off on October 25 between the two frontrunners, a contest polls suggest would also be close. It is a far tighter race than Lula's 2022 victory, when he beat the elder Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points.

The Bolsonaro campaign also faces scrutiny over a film-funding scandal. Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation over financing for Dark Horse, a biopic about his father bankrolled by a jailed banker tied to one of Brazil's biggest financial scandals. Brazil's Supreme Court authorised federal police in April to investigate whether he made defamatory statements about Lula.

Bolsonaro has pledged to seek his father's release from prison if elected, and has echoed his father's unsubstantiated claims questioning the reliability of Brazil's electronic voting system, steps analysts have warned could lay the groundwork for contesting the result.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Brazil is South America's largest economy, and the outcome will shape the region's political direction for years to come.
  • A first-round result is unlikely on Sunday, meaning another three weeks of a volatile, high-stakes campaign until the October 25 run-off.
  • The race will test how much of the elder Bolsonaro's movement, and its ties to US politics, survives his imprisonment.

Background

Brazil's presidential race is dominated by the two figures who defined its modern political divide: Lula, the veteran leftist who served two earlier terms before returning to office in 2023, and the Bolsonaro family, whose presidency ended after the elder Bolsonaro refused to accept his 2022 defeat and was later convicted over his attempt to overturn it. The younger Bolsonaro has inherited his father's base and campaign style while facing investigations of his own. The prominent interest of the Trump White House has added a further layer of tension to an already polarised contest.

Key Perspectives

Lula campaign: Frames the vote as a defence of democracy against the far right, and warns that Washington is seeking to meddle in Brazil's sovereignty.

Bolsonaro campaign: Claims momentum toward a possible first-round win, pledges to free the former president, and has echoed doubts about the reliability of the electronic voting system.

Washington: Trump has stopped short of a formal endorsement but says he is watching the election closely, a stance Lula's supporters describe as interference and some Bolsonaro supporters welcome.

Critics and analysts: Warn that unsubstantiated claims about the voting machines could be used to cast doubt on the result, mirroring the elder Bolsonaro's behaviour after the 2022 election.

What to Watch

  • Sunday's first-round count: whether either candidate clears the threshold needed to avoid a run-off.
  • The October 25 run-off if, as polls suggest, the race goes to a second round.
  • The investigation into the financing of the Dark Horse biopic and whether it affects the campaign's final stretch.
  • Any early statements from either camp about the integrity of the electronic voting system.

Sources

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