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Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite Hormuz tensions, data shows

Kpler tracking data shows crude exports exceeding 18 million bpd on multiple days, even as Iran claims to have closed the Strait of Hormuz

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time2 min
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have risen above pre-war levels on four of seven days in the last week of September, according to provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler, even as a senior Iranian commander downplayed the volumes moving through the region and Tehran insisted the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until its conditions are met.

Kpler data shows crude exports from the region reached 19.5-22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, exceeding the pre-war average of 18 million bpd recorded between March 2025 and February 2026. The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30. On October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd. The figures include transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, but exclude vessels that may have crossed with their automatic identification system transponders off.

Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ali Fadavi said in a televised interview that only three to four million bpd are now moving through the route, dismissing the amount as "negligible" compared with pre-war traffic. Fadavi also stated, for the first time, that no US vessels are present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or the northern Indian Ocean, and that US warships are "100 percent vulnerable" to IRGC attacks.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to their highest monthly level since February. On Sunday, Iran's top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Tehran's conditions.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The data suggests global oil markets may be pricing in less disruption than Iran claims, but the disconnect between tracking figures and official statements creates uncertainty for energy traders and importers.
  • Continued daily attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Aden risk driving up insurance premiums and rerouting tankers, even if total volumes remain high.
  • Iran's condition linking Hormuz reopening to US acceptance of its demands keeps a key chokepoint in a state of political and military tension.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, handling about one-fifth of the world's oil and a significant share of LNG. Since the US-Israel war on Iran began, traffic through the strait has been disrupted, with Iran claiming successful attacks on ships including US Navy vessels. Previous Kpler data showed a 95 percent drop in Hormuz traffic at one point, but recent figures indicate a partial recovery. The pre-war average of 18 million bpd reflects the period before hostilities escalated.

Key Perspectives

Kpler and market analysts: Tracking data shows oil flows have recovered to and even exceeded pre-war levels on some days, suggesting that despite military activity, much of the transit continues. The rise in LNG cargoes further indicates that energy exports are not fully interrupted. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): Commander Fadavi argues that only a small fraction of pre-war oil is moving through the route, framing the traffic as negligible. He also asserts that US naval presence has been eliminated from the region, leaving warships vulnerable. Critics and skeptics: The discrepancy between Kpler data and IRGC claims may reflect the difficulty of tracking vessels with AIS turned off, but also raises questions about Iran's ability to enforce a full closure while exports continue via other routes, including ship-to-ship transfers.

What to Watch

  • Whether the seven-day moving average for crude exports holds above 18 million bpd in early October, especially if attacks intensify.
  • The number of AIS-disabled vessels crossing the strait, as these may represent traffic Iran is unable or unwilling to stop.
  • Next statements from Iran's leadership on conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and any US response.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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