Mortgage repayments cheaper than rent in dozens of Australian suburbs, analysis finds

Guardian Australia analysis of Cotality data shows gap between buying and renting narrowing as rents rise and property prices fall

By LineZotpaper
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High rents and falling property prices have opened a rare window for Australian tenants to become homeowners, with mortgage repayments now cheaper than rent in dozens of suburbs, according to an analysis by Guardian Australia of Cotality data.

The analysis found that median rents in inner-city Melbourne, suburban Canberra and Darwin are now nearly matching weekly home loan repayments. In one in 10 suburbs and towns across the country, repayments are less than $200 a week higher than rent for the typical property. In some suburbs, they are actually cheaper.

Australia's median rent prices rose 5.5% over the year to September to reach $713 per week, while the median property price across houses and units was flat over the year after six months of steady falls.

In Melbourne, the typical rent for an apartment was $628 a week after rising 4.8% over the last year. Typical repayments for a Melbourne flat were $211 more, at $839 a week, based on a median value of $624,740 in September, down nearly $25,000 from a year earlier. The analysis assumes a new 30-year loan of 95% of the value at a 6.2% interest rate, and does not account for additional costs. Smaller loans with bigger deposits would make repayments even more affordable compared with rents.

Repayments were cheaper than rent for the typical property in Carlton, Melbourne CBD, Notting Hill, Travancore and Southbank. In Sydney, repayments were just $100 a week more than rents in inner-city Ultimo.

Clint Waters, a Melbourne mortgage broker and director at Axton Finance, said home buying interest had dropped but renters were inquiring in strong numbers as they weighed lower house prices against higher rents. "They're certainly doing the maths ... [and] the equation at the moment is starting to narrow," Waters said. He noted a stable or growing number of tenants were looking to buy directly from their landlord. "Landlords are getting slammed left, right and centre, and going 'screw this, I'm going to offload,'" Waters said. "Tenants will ring us up and say, 'I need to work out if I've got the capacity to buy this thing.'"

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • For Australian renters, the narrowing gap between mortgage repayments and rents may make home ownership more attainable, particularly in areas where prices have fallen significantly.
  • The trend could shift demand from renting to buying, potentially stabilising or propping up property prices, while putting further pressure on landlords already facing higher costs.
  • If interest rates continue to rise or property values fall further, the affordability equation could change quickly, affecting both buyers and existing homeowners.

Background

Australia has experienced a prolonged period of rising rents and, more recently, a cooling property market. The Reserve Bank has raised interest rates over the past year, increasing borrowing costs. At the same time, new apartment supply in some inner-city areas has pushed down property values. The combination has made buying more affordable relative to renting in certain suburbs, though upfront costs and deposit requirements remain significant barriers for many first-home buyers.

Key Perspectives

Renters and first-home buyers: Those able to secure a loan and a deposit may find home ownership more achievable than in recent years, especially with government low-deposit schemes available for 5% deposits. However, many still face high rental costs while saving. Landlords and investors: Rising interest rates and regulatory pressures have made property investment less attractive. Some landlords are selling, which may increase supply and further lower prices, but also reduce rental stock. Economists and analysts: The narrowing of the buy-rent gap may be temporary. If interest rates fall, mortgage repayments could drop further, but if prices rebound, the window could close. Much depends on broader economic conditions and housing policy.

What to Watch

  • Movement in the cash rate and its impact on mortgage repayments for new buyers.
  • Housing price trends in cities like Melbourne and Sydney, particularly for apartments where price falls have been most pronounced.
  • Rental vacancy rates and rent growth; if rents stabilise, the buy-rent equation may shift again.

Sources

Zotpaper

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