Why This Matters
- The visits signal the junta's continued diplomatic engagement despite international sanctions and ASEAN's limited recognition.
- Indonesia, as ASEAN's largest economy and a key regional player, could provide a pathway for re-engagement or further complicate the bloc's stance on Myanmar.
- The outcome may influence whether ASEAN moves toward a more pragmatic relationship with the junta or maintains its current isolation.
Background
Myanmar has been under military rule since the February 2021 coup that ousted the elected civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The junta has faced widespread domestic opposition and international condemnation. ASEAN has barred the junta from high-level meetings due to its failure to implement the five-point peace consensus agreed upon in 2021. Min Aung Hlaing has gradually sought to reassert Myanmar's regional presence through bilateral visits.
Key Perspectives
ASEAN member states: Some members, particularly Thailand and Cambodia, have pushed for a more engaged approach with the junta, arguing that isolation has not produced results. Indonesia and Malaysia have generally been more critical but have maintained diplomatic channels.
Myanmar's opposition and civil society groups: They view any normalisation with the junta as a betrayal of the pro-democracy movement and a legitimisation of the military's violence and abuses.
International observers: They note that the junta's diplomatic efforts may be an attempt to break its isolation and gain legitimacy, but without meaningful progress on human rights and political dialogue, such visits risk whitewashing the regime.
What to Watch
- Whether Indonesia raises the ASEAN five-point consensus or human rights conditions during the visit.
- The response of Myanmar's opposition and ethnic armed groups to the increasing regional engagement.
- Any joint statements or communiques issued following the visits, which may signal shifts in ASEAN's position.