Nationals face One Nation threat in regional Victoria as voters grow frustrated

Polls show Pauline Hanson's party gaining ground, with internal Labor polling suggesting the Nationals could lose up to three seats

By LineZotpaper

Published10 October 2026

Read Time3 min

The Victorian Nationals are defending their seats against a surging One Nation, with polls showing the far-right party’s support hovering around 20 per cent statewide and even higher in regional areas. Internal Labor polling leaked in June suggested the Nationals could face a wipeout at November's state election, and another poll commissioned by Trades Hall projected the party losing at least three seats to Pauline Hanson's party.

Nationals leader Danny O’Brien said conversations with voters on the campaign trail revealed a growing appetite for change. He recalled a recent encounter in his Gippsland South electorate where a woman herding cows told him she “liked orange” – a reference to One Nation – and thought it was “time to shake things up”. O’Brien said he warned her that voting for One Nation could hand Labor a path to victory “through the middle”, and the woman later offered to host one of his signs on her property.

“It’s often been said we’re a loose collection of independents that share that passion for rural and regional Victoria,” O’Brien said. “It’s not necessarily about left or right.”

The Nationals currently hold nine seats in the lower house, their best result since 1943, after picking up three seats from independents in 2022. O’Brien credits the result to candidate selection, saying the party has become skilled at identifying “local champions” with a preexisting profile and “attaching the Nationals brand” to them. At this election, they hope to hold existing seats while targeting Labor-held Bendigo East, Bendigo West and Ripon.

But Nationals MP for Mildura, Jade Benham, was blunt about the threat. “One Nation are 100% our biggest threat,” she said. “It’s not even about the candidate. The candidate is kind of inconsequential. It’s the brand now.”

The rise of One Nation is partly driven by economic anxiety in regional areas. Wellington Shire mayor Cindy Madeley said the region is in a “state of flux” as traditional industries change. In Sale, Esso Australia is decommissioning half its offshore infrastructure; in Yarram, a timber mill closed before Christmas after Victoria’s native forest logging ban. Plans for offshore wind remain uncertain. “People want to be able to stay here and for their kids to stay here. They just want things to get better,” Madeley said.

One Nation has pledged to halt new transmission lines and renewable energy projects, keep Victoria’s largest coal plant operating and lift the ban on nuclear energy. Last week, the party also committed to bring back logging. It did not respond to a request for comment.

Federally, One Nation won its first lower house seat at the Farrer byelection and the latest Guardian Essential poll showed its primary vote at 25 per cent, ahead of the Liberal-National coalition on its lowest-ever primary vote of 22 per cent.

Analysis

Why This Matters

A strong One Nation showing could reshape Victoria’s political landscape, potentially denying the Nationals seats they have held for decades and altering the balance of power in the state’s lower house.
The rise reflects deeper regional discontent over cost of living, industry decline and energy transition policies, signalling a protest vote that may have implications beyond Victoria.
If One Nation maintains its momentum, it could fragment the conservative vote further, affecting both state and federal coalition prospects.

Background

Regional Victoria has long been a stronghold for the Nationals, who position themselves as representatives of rural and farming communities. The party’s current nine seats are its best result since 1943, achieved by recruiting locally known candidates. However, economic pressures – including the winding down of oil and gas operations, the closure of timber mills due to native forest logging bans, and uncertainty around renewable energy projects – have fuelled voter frustration. One Nation has tapped into this discontent with promises to halt renewables and restore old industries.

Key Perspectives

Danny O’Brien, Victorian Nationals leader: Argues the Nationals remain competitive by fielding “local champions” who connect with communities on issues beyond left-right politics. He believes targeted conversations can counter One Nation’s appeal. Jade Benham, Nationals MP for Mildura: Calls One Nation the “biggest threat”, emphasising that the party’s brand, not its candidates, is driving support. Cindy Madeley, Wellington Shire mayor: Highlights the “state of flux” in regional economies, where job losses and cost-of-living pressures are pushing voters to seek alternatives.

What to Watch

The November state election results in key Nationals seats, especially Gippsland South, Mildura, and the newly targeted Bendigo seats.
Any further polling – leaked or public – that tracks One Nation’s support in the final weeks of the campaign.
How the major parties respond with policies addressing regional economic concerns, particularly around energy and industry.

Sources

Seeing orange: Nationals under threat in regional Victoria as angry voters consider One Nation — Australia news | The Guardian