In commodity markets, certain relationships have long been treated as close to natural law. Gold cost about 15 times as much as silver for more than 2000 years, from the era of the Lydian king Croesus to the 19th-century gold standard. Nickel has held a similar standing relative to copper, trading at a consistent premium to the metal ever since it began to be mined on a large scale in the mid-19th century.
The analysis by David Fickling, published on September 28, argues that this 175-year pattern is now on the brink of breaking. Nickel is used mainly in producing stainless steel for cutlery and appliances, while copper is essential for the wiring in electric cars, data centres, toasters and washing machines. The divergence matters because it underscores how much the energy transition depends on copper, which is proving far less tractable to the usual laws of supply.
Nickel prices are struggling because when the world needed more in recent years, miners managed to unlock vast new resources. They performed a similar trick in previous decades with iron ore and aluminium. Copper, the indispensable element as the world electrifies, has so far resisted that kind of rapid supply expansion, the column suggests.
The piece is an opinion analysis rather than a market forecast, and it points to copper as the more consequential constraint for the electrification push. If nickel's historic premium to copper continues to erode, it would mark a significant shift in how traders read the two metals.