Cormann will caution Labor and the Coalition against following the lead of populist parties like One Nation, which has surged to a primary vote of 25% according to the latest Guardian Essential poll, overtaking the Coalition on 22%. While acknowledging that populists have gained traction by speaking to real grievances over rising energy bills, home ownership and falling real incomes, he will argue that copying their economics is a losing strategy.
"Mainstream parties that respond to a populist surge by adopting its economics do not recover their voters. They lose twice: once to the original, which the electorate will always prefer to the copy, and once to the centre, which has nowhere else to go," the speech will say.
Cormann will specifically warn against "arbitrary migration caps" imposed without regard for their effects on business, hospitals, aged care or universities. He will acknowledge that more Australians than at any time in the past 20 years believe the migration intake is too high, with many citing housing concerns. However, he will argue the answer lies in addressing housing supply, infrastructure, services and the composition of the migration intake, not blanket caps.
Citing OECD research across Australian regions, Cormann will note that in places where more migrants arrived, employment among Australian-born workers grew faster, not slower, with no measurable effect on their wages.
"The lesson is consistent: deliver homes, lower energy costs, real wage growth and a credible budget, and the populist tide recedes. Mimic the populists, and you simply confirm that they were right all along," he will say. "The way to defeat populism is to solve the problems it feeds on."