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One Nation voters distrust party on budget despite high support, Queensland poll finds

LNP leads as best economic manager at 35 per cent; half of voters want spending cuts after credit downgrade

By LineZotpaper
Published
Read Time2 min
Sources3 outlets
New polling shows a majority of Queensland voters want spending cuts to repair the state budget, but only 13 per cent believe One Nation would be the best party to manage the economy, despite the party's primary vote steadying above 20 per cent. The LNP government leads on economic trust at 35 per cent, followed by Labor at 21 per cent, with 22 per cent undecided.

The Resolve Political Monitor survey, conducted for this masthead between October 6 and 10 with 434 registered voters, comes after S&P Global downgraded Queensland's credit rating from AA+ to AA in September, the state's first downgrade in 17 years. The agency cited heightened deficits driven by Olympic infrastructure spending and economic headwinds.

Half of voters say they want the state to cut spending to address debt and deficit issues. The poll also reveals a disconnect between One Nation's elevated primary vote intention, which has steadied above 20 per cent, and voter confidence in the party's economic management. Only 13 per cent named One Nation as best placed to handle the budget, rising slightly to 15 per cent in marginal seats.

Treasurer David Janetzki, at the time of the downgrade, reiterated his belief that the outcome was the inevitable result of the former Labor government's actions, but also conceded his government had shied away from politically sensitive actions that the ratings agency had flagged.

The survey arrives at the halfway point of the parliamentary term, with both major parties turning their attention to the 2028 state election. The Crisafulli LNP government remains popular, while One Nation has moved into striking range of a lagging Labor opposition. Eight per cent chose "someone else" and 22 per cent were undecided or said no party would be best.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The poll reveals a gap between One Nation's rising electoral support and voter confidence in its fiscal competence, which could shape coalition dynamics or preference flows at the next election.
  • The credit rating downgrade and desire for spending cuts put pressure on the LNP government to deliver budget repair without alienating voters ahead of 2028.
  • A large undecided bloc (22 per cent) means economic messaging will be a key battleground.

Background

Queensland faces significant fiscal pressure from infrastructure spending linked to the 2032 Olympic Games. In September 2026, S&P Global downgraded the state's credit rating, the first such downgrade in 17 years. The LNP government, elected in 2024, inherited a budget deficit from the previous Labor administration. Treasurer David Janetzki has attributed the downgrade to Labor's legacy but has acknowledged his government has avoided politically difficult spending cuts.

Key Perspectives

LNP government: Holds the strongest economic management credentials in voters' eyes (35 per cent). Blames Labor for the fiscal position but must now navigate budget repair ahead of the next election. Labor opposition (Steven Miles): Trails at 21 per cent. Will seek to link the LNP's handling of the budget to the downgrade and argue for a different approach. One Nation: Enjoys high primary vote (above 20 per cent) but low trust on the economy (13 per cent). This mismatch suggests voters may be drawn to the party on other issues, leaving economic credibility a vulnerability. Undecided/other voters (30 per cent): A significant swing group that both major parties will target with budget and spending policies.

What to Watch

  • The state budget due in 2027, which will reveal whether the LNP pursues the spending cuts that voters say they want.
  • Any signs of a formal or informal alliance between the LNP and One Nation, which could alter the political calculus.
  • Further credit rating actions: another downgrade would intensify pressure on the government.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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