While governments have scrambled to secure lithium, rare earths, antimony and tungsten for data centres, batteries and defence, a more fundamental material has quietly risen in strategic importance: phosphate, the key to growing the world's food.
The report notes that global supply chain shocks, worsened by maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, have exposed the fragility of food supply chains, with the Middle East accounting for close to 30 per cent of global fertiliser exports. Surging sulphur prices, driven by regional disruption, have raised input costs for phosphate processing worldwide.
A larger structural shock came from China, where the government has told major producers to suspend phosphate exports until further notice. With China producing about 40 per cent of the global supply, the move removes a sizeable chunk from international markets.
These conditions have created opportunities for Western producers outside traditional supply hubs to sell fertiliser at a premium. Morocco, holding the world's largest phosphate reserves at 50 billion metric tonnes (over 68 per cent of the global total), is positioning to benefit. US producers Mosaic and Nutrien are also expanding operations to secure supply for the Americas, which the report describes as an increasingly hungry market.
The report highlights Brazil as a case in point, with its booming agricultural sector facing the new reality of tighter global phosphate availability.