Puigdemont poised to return as amnesty ruling nears, but Catalonia has changed

Spain's constitutional court expected to clear last legal obstacle, yet the region he left nine years ago bears little resemblance

By LineZotpaper

Published5 October 2026

Read Time3 min

Carles Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who fled Spain in 2017 to avoid imprisonment for leading an illegal independence push, is expected to be cleared for return this week after Spain’s constitutional court rules that a charge of misuse of public funds is covered by the 2024 amnesty law. But the Catalonia he would come back to is a very different place from the one he left, now governed by a non-nationalist party and preoccupied with housing and jobs rather than sovereignty.

After nearly nine years in exile, the path for Carles Puigdemont to return to Catalonia without fear of arrest appears close to being cleared. On 6 October, Spain’s constitutional court is expected to decide that the charge of misuse of public funds against him is covered by the amnesty law passed by the Spanish government in 2024, removing the last legal obstacle to his homecoming.

Puigdemont fled in 2017 to avoid jail for his role in the failed independence push, for which nine of his colleagues were imprisoned on sentences of up to 13 years, though all were released within three years.

Yet the political climate he would find in Catalonia has changed beyond recognition. Since 2024, the region has been governed by the Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC) — the first non-nationalist party in charge since 1980. Led by Salvador Illa, who served as Spain’s health minister during the Covid pandemic, the PSC has ushered in an era of cooperation with the Socialist-led government in Madrid.

The fervour of mass demonstrations and constant conflict that marked the independence movement has given way to more pressing concerns. Young Catalans, who once were fired up about sovereignty, now face issues of low wages, high rents, and unaffordable mortgages. As a result, 82% of Catalonia’s 18- to 30-year-olds still live with their parents. Puigdemont’s party, Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia), voted down the government’s progressive housing proposals on Friday, a move unlikely to endear it to younger voters or their parents.

Demographic changes are also reshaping Catalonia. When Puigdemont went into exile, 13.8% of the Catalan population was foreign-born; today the figure is 18.7%. In Barcelona, 32% of residents are immigrants representing 118 nationalities, a proportion that rises to 50% among those aged 12 to 35. This shift has challenged nationalist definitions of who is a Catalan, with the former president Jordi Pujol once insisting that a Catalan was anyone who lived and worked in Catalonia.

The disillusionment with the independence movement has given rise to a new far-right nationalist party, Aliança Catalana, whose leader says “there isn’t room for everyone” in Catalonia and would exclude Muslims, even those born in Spain. This has dragged Junts, traditionally the party of the Catalan bourgeoisie, to the right as voters on the ethno-nationalist margins gravitate toward the openly racist positions of Aliança Catalana.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Puigdemont's return could re-energise the independence movement or expose its diminished relevance, shaping the political landscape in one of Spain's most powerful regions.
The outcome of the constitutional court ruling sets a precedent for how Spain handles the aftermath of the 2017 secession attempt and the scope of amnesty laws.
Younger Catalans, focused on housing and jobs, may respond differently to Puigdemont's message than the generation that filled the streets in 2017, potentially altering the future of the sovereignty debate.

Background

Carles Puigdemont was Catalan president during the 2017 independence referendum, which Spain's constitutional court had declared illegal. After the failed declaration of independence, he fled to Belgium to avoid prosecution. Nine colleagues who remained were imprisoned but later released. In 2024, Spain's Socialist government passed an amnesty law aimed at normalising relations with Catalonia, but its application to Puigdemont's charges has been contested. The current ruling is expected to clarify whether the misuse of public funds charge — relating to the organisation of the referendum — is covered.

Key Perspectives

Puigdemont and Junts per Catalunya: They see his return as a vindication of the independence cause and a chance to rally support, though the party faces pressure from a resurgent far-right nationalist party and a electorate focused on economic issues. The Socialist government in Madrid and the PSC: They favour stability and cooperation, and view the amnesty as a tool to move past conflict. Puigdemont's return may complicate this if he re-ignites tensions, but the changed political climate may limit his impact. Young Catalans and new residents: Many are more concerned with affordable housing, jobs, and integration than with sovereignty. The independence movement’s old promises may not resonate with a more diverse, pragmatic generation. Aliança Catalana: A far-right nationalist party that rejects inclusive definitions of Catalan identity and advocates for excluding Muslims. Its rise could push Junts further right and polarise the independence spectrum.

What to Watch

The constitutional court's ruling on 6 October, which will determine whether Puigdemont can return legally.
Puigdemont's reception and whether he chooses to return immediately and how his party positions itself in response to housing and demographic issues.
The reaction of the far-right Aliança Catalana and any shift in public opinion polls regarding independence and immigration.

Sources

Exiled separatist leader is likely to return to a very different Catalonia — World news | The Guardian