More than 16 million Americans have already cast ballots in the US midterm elections as early voting sets records in multiple states, less than two weeks before Election Day on November 3.
Early voting in the US midterm elections is running at record levels, with more than 16 million ballots already cast across more than 30 states. Just over 10 million of those votes were sent by mail.
Monday was the first day of early voting in Texas, home to one of the key Senate races of the cycle, between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Harris County, the state's largest, recorded 104,000 votes on the day, a midterm record, and Dallas County also surpassed its all-time mark.
High turnout is showing elsewhere. In Georgia, nearly 30% of the total votes cast in the 2022 midterms have already been cast, with more than 190,000 votes on the first day of early voting, breaking the record set four years ago. North Carolina is close to 25% of its 2022 total. In Florida, where Hispanics number 6.7 million of the state's 23.3 million residents, early voting has begun in only a few counties and becomes mandatory statewide from October 24. Nearly 20% of the state's 2022 voters have already cast ballots.
Early voting generally favors the party showing the most enthusiasm, and on these numbers that party is the Democrats. According to data from the University of Florida, 47.4% of ballots cast so far are from Democratic voters and 29.2% from Republican voters. Donald Trump's low approval ratings, weighed down by an endless war in Iran, high fuel prices, the rising cost of living and an aggressive immigration policy, augur losses for Republican candidates. The GOP is fighting to maintain control of both chambers of Congress, and polls predict the party will lose its majority.
During the campaign, Trump repeatedly and unsuccessfully sought to impose strict limits on mail voting, a method that tends to benefit Democrats. Latinos are among the groups most likely to vote by mail because it is harder for them to get time off work to go to the polls. Polls show many Latinos who backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election, and whose votes were crucial to his return to the White House, plan this time to support Democratic candidates.
More states join in the coming days: Maryland begins Thursday and New York on October 24. Across the country, 47 states and Washington, D.C., allow voters to cast ballots before Election Day without providing a reason. Only Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire still require a documented reason. In some states early voting ends on October 29, while in others it continues through November 3.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The midterms decide control of both chambers of Congress, and these are the first hard numbers on voter enthusiasm with two weeks to go.
- A Democratic advantage in early returns, if it holds, points to a possible shift in majorities in Washington.
- The fight over mail voting is shaping how a large share of Americans are able to cast ballots at all.
Background
Midterm elections are held halfway through a president's four-year term, with the party in the White House historically tending to lose ground. Early voting, once a small part of American elections, now accounts for a large share of ballots in most states, and 47 states plus Washington, D.C., currently allow voters to cast ballots before Election Day without giving a reason. This year's vote is being held with Trump in the White House and Republicans defending their majorities in both chambers.
Key Perspectives
Democratic voters: Early returns point to stronger Democratic enthusiasm, with 47.4% of ballots cast so far coming from Democratic voters. Polls also show Latinos who helped elect Trump in 2024 now leaning toward Democratic candidates, and mail voting, which Democrats are more likely to use, is a major part of the total.
Republican leadership: The GOP is fighting to maintain control of both chambers. Trump's low approval ratings, linked to the war in Iran, high fuel prices, the rising cost of living and an aggressive immigration policy, are expected to weigh on Republican candidates, and polls predict the party will lose its majority.
President Trump: During the campaign, Trump repeatedly and unsuccessfully sought strict limits on mail voting, the method that accounts for the majority of ballots cast so far and one that tends to benefit Democrats.
What to Watch
- The Senate race in Texas between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, where first-day records in Harris and Dallas counties will be read as an early signal for both parties.
- Florida and New York move to statewide early voting on October 24, with Maryland beginning Thursday, expanding the pool of states reporting returns.
- Whether the Democratic lead in early ballots narrows as Republicans turn out in person, with voting in some states ending as early as October 29 and in others running through November 3.