The UK risks failing to deter future Russian aggression in the high north because of shortfalls in the number and availability of Royal Navy submarines and warships, MPs on the defence select committee have said.
In a report, the committee pointed to the slow deployment of the destroyer HMS Dragon to Cyprus this spring, declining numbers of frigates, and reports that all five Astute-class attack submarines were in dock during the summer as evidence of a navy under-resourced for the threat.
"The UK needs to be willing to address a hard truth: it does not currently have all the capabilities to operate successfully in the high north," said Tan Dhesi, the committee chair. "Publicly available evidence of low availability among destroyers, frigates and attack submarines calls into question whether the UK can meet its commitments."
The high north, the seas beyond Scotland, has become increasingly strategically significant amid growing Russian interest in energy pipelines and undersea cables, at a time when Arctic seaways are opening up because of global heating. The navy shadowed a Russian spy ship, the Yantar, operating inside the UK's economic waters in November and January last year, accusing its sailors of trying to map strategic cables and shining lasers at RAF pilots.
Russia also wants to assert control over the emerging northern sea route, a 3,500-mile shipping lane along its Arctic coast, the quickest maritime route from China to Europe.
The committee said the UK needed to make "dramatic progress" before the end of the decade and called on the Ministry of Defence to draw up a plan to ensure more warships and submarines are at sea by 2030. The problem would be particularly acute if the US did not support the UK in a crisis, a rare cross-party acknowledgment that US military help cannot be relied on.
"There would be critical military gaps if the United States were not involved in countering such [Russian] aggression," the MPs said, arguing the UK, as the next largest Nato military in the region, had to be prepared to increase its navy.
It took more than three weeks for HMS Dragon to arrive in the eastern Mediterranean in March after an RAF base in Cyprus was struck by a drone. No warships were available, and the destroyer had to be hauled out of dry dock.
The navy has five frigates with sonar dedicated to detecting Russian submarines at distance, lower than a target of eight, as ageing warships have been scrapped without replacements. It could take until 2037 to reach its stated requirement. None of Britain's five Astute submarines, used to track Russian maritime activity, were at sea from June into the summer, in dock for refits, and they lack the capability to operate under ice, unlike Russian equivalents, though certification exercises are in progress.
No significant extra money is expected for defence until the next decade, with the government committed to medium-term spending plans. While the previous administration agreed to lift defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, only a lower level of 2.7% would be signed off by 2030.
In response, a Ministry of Defence spokesperson highlighted a recent £330m investment to protect undersea infrastructure and noted that Defence Secretary Wes Streeting had visited Iceland this month and watched HMS St Albans track Russian submarines in the north Atlantic. "We are clear-eyed about the threat Russia poses," they added.