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Russia says it can out-supply Trump-Putin diesel deal as rift with Europe widens

Moscow claims exports could return to pre-crisis levels; EU puts Ukraine funding at centre of summit

By LineZotpaper
Published
Updated
Read Time2 min
Sources2 outlets
Russia said on Monday it could soon supply more diesel to global markets than the volumes agreed between President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, a deal that is opening a rift between Washington and Europe over the war in Ukraine.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told the news programme Vesti that supply volumes could reach 3.5 million tonnes per month by the end of the year, “just as was the case before the crisis.”

Putin and Trump spoke on Friday on an agreement expected to bring 300,000 tonnes of diesel to global markets in October, 500,000 tonnes in November and one million tonnes in December. Trump posted that diesel prices “for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!”

Experts are sceptical. Kostis Stambolis, executive director of the Institute of Energy for South-East Europe, described the US move as “purely political” and designed to put Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a corner. Trump wants to signal that the US has “no problem with Russia,” unlike Europe, Stambolis said, adding that Russia produces 5.8 million tonnes of diesel a month, with about two million tonnes likely available for export.

The deal has opened a rift with Europe, which is rallying behind Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday that Ukraine’s war funding would be “front and centre” of this week’s European Council summit. Finland’s foreign minister, Elina Valtonen, called on Europeans to ban tourist visas for Russians.

Stambolis argued that Trump was leveraging European weakness. Around 30 European refineries have closed in the past 15 years for environmental reasons, partly because of the cost of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, he said, leaving Europe not self-sufficient in refined products. Trump, he said, is showing “he doesn’t want to deal with Europe and to hell with them,” and the episode “is opening the rift between the US and the EU further.”

Ukraine says it has destroyed roughly half of Russia’s refining capacity, forcing Moscow to stop exporting lucrative petroleum products that help finance its war, and has bombed Russian tankers carrying crude oil to global markets. Al Jazeera’s related reporting notes Ukraine has warned the deal will bankroll Russia’s war, and that new Russian strikes have been reported despite what Trump calls an “energy ceasefire.”

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The deal effectively loosens Western pressure on Russian energy exports, which Ukraine and European leaders say fund Moscow’s war effort.
  • It exposes divisions within the transatlantic alliance over how to treat Russia, at a moment when European leaders are preparing to discuss continued funding for Ukraine.
  • Fuel prices are a domestic political issue in the US, and the pledge of cheaper diesel gives the White House a talking point that European capitals see as undercutting their position.

Background

Russia is a major producer and exporter of diesel, and European countries were significant buyers of Russian refined products before Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions and the war have since redrawn those trade flows, while Ukrainian long-range strikes have taken out refining capacity inside Russia.

The agreement between Putin and Trump is being presented by Washington as an “energy ceasefire” that would push global fuel prices down. European governments, by contrast, view it through the lens of the Ukraine war, where energy revenue remains central to Russia’s ability to continue fighting.

Key Perspectives

[Russia]: Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says Moscow can go beyond the agreed volumes, describing a return to monthly exports of 3.5 million tonnes by the end of the year as achievable. [The United States]: President Trump frames the deal as a win for consumers at the pump and a step toward calm in energy markets. Critics say it signals US acceptance of Russia and weakens Ukraine’s position. [Europe and Ukraine]: The EU is putting support for Ukraine at the centre of this week’s summit, and Finland is pushing for a full tourist visa ban for Russians. Ukraine argues the deal will bankroll Russia’s war, pointing to its own strikes on refineries and tankers as the reason Moscow now needs such an arrangement. [Experts/Skeptics]: Kostis Stambolis describes the US move as “purely political,” and argues Europe’s refinery closures have left it vulnerable and unable to push back effectively.

What to Watch

  • The European Council summit this week, and whether it produces new funding commitments or sanctions that respond to the deal.
  • Whether the scheduled October deliveries of 300,000 tonnes actually reach the market, and at what price.
  • Whether Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure continue or pause, testing Trump’s claim that the “energy ceasefire” holds.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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