Russia has become more systematic, deliberate and precise in striking civilian infrastructure, according to the report, which marks a new phase after almost five years of war. After Ukrainian forces stopped and partially reversed the Russian battlefield advance, the Kremlin appears to have embraced a new theory of victory: by increasing the number of missile and drone strikes and expanding the range of their targets, Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to paralyze Ukraine's economy, society and the basic functioning of the state.
The campaign is not merely an intensification of attacks on civilians and rear-area targets. It is an attempt to strangle Ukraine's economy, disrupt supply chains, cut transport routes and destroy public utilities. By systematically targeting the infrastructure that allows Ukrainian society to function, Russia aims to make the country uninhabitable as winter approaches, and to cut cities off from electricity, heating and water.
Increased production of ballistic missiles and newer, faster drones has allowed Russia to widen the air campaign. The report says Moscow's shift to a war economy is now paying dividends, delivering greater numbers of missiles and drones at a time when Ukraine's air defense suffers from a severe shortage of anti-ballistic-missile interceptors.
The strikes are expected to continue and rise in frequency as additional Russian weapons production comes online. The air war also carries implications for Western support and the strategic choices facing Kyiv, as European governments weigh how to respond to Moscow's expanded targeting of civilian infrastructure.