Solent seabird numbers bounce back three years after avian flu wipeout

Sandwich tern colony at Pagham harbour recovers from zero to 756 breeding pairs

By LineZotpaper

Published19 October 2026

Updated19 October 2026

Read Time2 min

Sources2 outlets

Seabird populations along the Solent coast have rebounded sharply three years after avian flu devastated nesting colonies, with sandwich terns at Pagham harbour in West Sussex recovering from a complete wipeout in 2022 to 756 breeding pairs this year.

Conservation work by RSPB staff and volunteers has driven the recovery across 52,000 hectares of coastline and estuary between the south coast and the Isle of Wight, according to the wildlife charity.

The sandwich terns, whose breeding colony at Pagham harbour was abandoned after being hit severely by HPAI/bird flu in 2022, produced 570 fledglings this summer, one of the largest colonies ever recorded in the Solent region.

Other species have also surged. Black-headed gulls increased tenfold from 51 fledglings in 2025 to 504 in 2026, little terns rose from 21 last year to 34, and populations of ringed plovers, oystercatchers and avocets have grown along the same coastline. Eighteen pairs of avocets nested on newly created islands within a saline lagoon at Ferry Pool, which provided safer nesting grounds for shoreline birds.

Wez Smith, senior project manager for the RSPB, said the recovery followed several years of dedicated conservation action. "In 2022, sandwich terns, black-headed gulls and Mediterranean gulls were hit severely by HPAI/bird flu, leading to the abandonment of their breeding colony at Pagham harbour," he said. "It's taken several years of dedicated conservation action, but the situation began to 'tern' around last year, and the site is now thriving with record breaking populations using it."

Conservation measures included fencing to keep mammalian predators such as foxes away from ground-nesting birds, monitoring for rats, patrols to reduce predation, and selective removal of vegetation to create nesting space. Volunteers and rangers also raised awareness among visitors of the vulnerability of ground-nesting birds to disturbance, with dog-friendly exercise areas provided away from nesting sites.

At nearby RSPB Medmerry, floating rafts have provided predator-free nesting spaces for common terns and black-headed gulls, while rafts have also boosted common tern numbers at West Hayling in Hampshire.

The efforts are part of the Solent Seascape project, a long-term partnership led by Blue Marine Foundation to restore coastal nesting sites, seagrass beds, oyster reefs and saltmarsh along the coast.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Demonstrates that targeted conservation intervention can reverse severe disease-driven population collapse in a short timeframe.
Ground-nesting seabird colonies are highly vulnerable to disturbance, disease and predation, making coordinated habitat management crucial.
The recovery offers a model for other coastal regions where avian flu and human disturbance have damaged breeding populations.

Background

Avian influenza, particularly the HPAI strain, caused widespread seabird mortality across the UK in 2022, forcing many breeding colonies to abandon their nests. Ground-nesting species such as terns, gulls and plovers are especially exposed, as their eggs and chicks sit directly on beaches or islands where disease, predators and human disturbance converge. This recovery effort is part of a broader seascape restoration approach that links bird nesting habitat with other coastal ecosystems such as seagrass, oysters and saltmarsh.

Key Perspectives

RSPB and conservation partners: The recovery is credited to sustained hands-on management, including predator exclusion, patrols and habitat creation, which they argue shows what coordinated conservation can achieve. Blue Marine Foundation and Solent Seascape partners: Their wider ecosystem restoration work, including lagoon islands and nesting rafts, is framed as helping both wildlife and coastal resilience. Critics and skeptics: The long-term outlook remains uncertain. Disease can return, and ground-nesting birds remain exposed to disturbance from visitors, dogs and boats, meaning ongoing vigilance and maintenance are required to sustain the gains.

What to Watch

Whether breeding pair counts at Pagham harbour hold or grow in the 2027 season, indicating the recovery is durable rather than a single good year.
Any recurrence of avian flu in coastal colonies, which could reverse the gains.
Expansion of the nesting-raft and predator-exclusion methods to other Solent sites and beyond.

Sources

Seabird numbers bounce back in Solent region after 2022 avian flu wipeout · World news | The Guardian
Seabird numbers bounce back in Solent region after 2022 avian flu wipeout · UK news | The Guardian