Space Force faces launch crunch as SpaceX retires Falcon 9

Military satellite missions left without rides as new rockets struggle to fill the gap

By LineZotpaper

Published22 October 2026

Read Time3 min

The US Space Force is confronting a looming launch crisis as SpaceX phases out its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket in favor of the larger Starship, leaving military satellite programmes without guaranteed access to orbit and exposing the Pentagon's heavy reliance on Elon Musk's company.

SpaceX, which accounted for 85 percent of US launches in 2025, is retiring the Falcon 9 to focus on Starship, a rocket the company says will be more efficient but that many military satellites are not designed to fit. The change has left the Space Force scrambling to secure rides for its payloads.

According to POLITICO, the Space Force recently tried to book launches for three future satellite missions through its National Security Space Launch (NSSL) programme. SpaceX declined to offer its services, and no other rocket company stepped in. Two of the missions belonged to the Space Development Agency, which is building a network of low-Earth orbit satellites for data and missile warning.

“Everybody's having problems, so the Space Force is freaking out a little bit about launch,” one former Space Force official told POLITICO, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.

Brig. Gen. Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force's acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access, downplayed the severity of the situation. “I wouldn't say there [are] missions I'm worried about being able to fly; I would say we're working through the right way to support those customers,” he said, though he acknowledged “temporary” growing pains as new providers come online.

The Space Force had hoped to use United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket and Blue Origin's New Glenn for some of its most demanding missions. But Vulcan was grounded earlier this year after problems with its solid rocket boosters, and New Glenn suffered a devastating explosion in May that put the rocket out of commission. Space Force officials have moved some Vulcan missions back to the Falcon 9, but that rocket is being phased out.

Newer companies such as Stoke Space, Relativity and Rocket Lab are developing medium-lift vehicles, but none has flown a successful test flight, meaning it could be years before they are ready for military use. The Space Force is also open to eventually using Starship, but the rocket is designed for flat-stack satellites like Starlink, and many military satellites require a larger payload bay.

An industry representative warned the service is unprepared for the demand surge. “It probably requires the Space Force to get creative and figure out a way to start buying capacity now before it's too late.” Another person familiar with the issue said the military needs to work with Congress to “fundamentally rethink” how it acquires launch, including reserving multiple flights years in advance for vehicles that have not yet proven themselves.

SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The military's ability to launch advanced satellites for communications, missile warning, and data services is at risk, potentially affecting national security operations.
The situation underscores the vulnerability of relying on a single dominant launch provider, especially one whose business decisions may not align with military timelines.
The entire space industry is feeling the pinch as commercial satellite builders also struggle to secure Falcon 9 slots after 2028.

Background

The Space Force procures launch services through the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) programme, which uses a two-lane system: one for less demanding missions and one for more challenging ones. The Falcon 9 rocket has dominated both lanes for years. SpaceX's decision to retire it, combined with delays and failures from competitors like ULA's Vulcan and Blue Origin's New Glenn, has created a bottleneck. New entrants such as Rocket Lab, Stoke Space, and Relativity have yet to demonstrate successful flights, leaving the military with few options.

Key Perspectives

Space Force: Brig. Gen. Eric Zarybnisky projects confidence, saying the service is working through the transition and expects new providers to come online. He remains optimistic that Blue Origin and ULA will solve their technical problems.

Competitors (ULA, Blue Origin, new entrants): ULA's Vulcan has been grounded; Blue Origin's New Glenn suffered a major setback. Both are critical to the military's heavy-lift needs. Newer companies are years away from operational status.

Industry critics: Former officials and industry representatives warn that the Space Force is not acting quickly enough. They argue the Pentagon must buy launch capacity earlier, even for unproven rockets, or risk losing access to orbit.

What to Watch

Whether ULA can resolve Vulcan's booster issue and Blue Origin can rebuild New Glenn's launchpad by 2026.
If SpaceX will certify Starship to carry military payloads and adapt it for larger satellites.
Any move by Congress to allow the Space Force to reserve multiple launches years in advance for vehicles yet to fly, as recommended by industry insiders.

Sources

Space Force scrambles as Elon Musk's SpaceX retires its major rocket · All Content from Business Insider

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 7 supported.

Show each claim

Partly supportedSpaceX is retiring the Falcon 9, as stated in the headline.All Content from Business Insider: “SpaceX is phasing out its popular Falcon 9 rocket in favor of its much larger Starship rocket.”
Partly supportedMilitary satellite missions have been left without rides, as the summary says.All Content from Business Insider: “The Space Force recently tried to book rides for three future satellite missions, but SpaceX declined to offer its services, according to two people familiar with the missions. No other rocket companies offered to take them either, the people said.”
SupportedSpaceX accounted for 85 percent of US launches in 2025.All Content from Business Insider: “accounting for 85% of US launches in 2025.”
SupportedSpaceX declined to offer rides for three future Space Force satellite missions, and no other rocket companies offered to take them.All Content from Business Insider: “The Space Force recently tried to book rides for three future satellite missions, but SpaceX declined to offer its services, according to two people familiar with the missions. No other rocket companies offered to take them either, the people said.”
SupportedA former Space Force official said, “Everybody's having problems, so the Space Force is freaking out a little bit about launch.”All Content from Business Insider: “"Everybody's having problems, so the Space Force is freaking out a little bit about launch," one former Space Force official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.”
SupportedBrig. Gen. Eric Zarybnisky said, “I wouldn't say there [are] missions I'm worried about being able to fly; I would say we're working through the right way to support those customers.”All Content from Business Insider: “"I wouldn't say there [are] missions I'm worried about being able to fly; I would say we're working through the right way to support those customers," said Brig. Gen. Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force's acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access.”
Partly supportedZarybnisky acknowledged “temporary” growing pains as new providers come online.All Content from Business Insider: “"Temporarily, there are some things we'll need to work through, again, as we get new providers flying," he said.”
Partly supportedNew Glenn's May explosion put the rocket out of commission.All Content from Business Insider: “Blue Origin's New Glenn program had a devastating setback in May when a rocket exploded on the company's only launchpad in Florida — putting the rocket out of commission likely until next year.”
SupportedStarship is designed for flat-stack satellites, while many military satellites are not designed to fit it.All Content from Business Insider: “Starship is designed for "flat stack" satellites such as Starlink, while most military satellites are designed for a larger cargo bay.”
SupportedAn industry representative said the crunch “probably requires the Space Force to get creative and figure out a way to start buying capacity now before it's too late.”All Content from Business Insider: “The launch crunch "probably requires the Space Force to get creative and figure out a way to start buying capacity now before it's too late," the representative said.”
SupportedA person familiar with the issue said the Space Force needs to work with Congress to “fundamentally rethink” launch acquisition, including reserving multiple flights in advance for vehicles that have yet to fly.All Content from Business Insider: “Another person familiar with the issue said that Space Force officials need to work with Congress to "fundamentally rethink" how the military acquires launch. "The Space Force needs to be allowed to reserve multiple launches at a time, much further out into the 2030s, for vehicles that have yet to fly," the person said.”

Correction

22 October 2026An earlier version of this story said the May New Glenn explosion put its launchpad out of commission. It was the rocket that was put out of commission.