Trump blames Democrats and Ukraine for high US fuel prices as data shows Strait of Hormuz exports down 97%

President shifts blame from Iran war to domestic refinery closures and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries ahead of midterms

By LineZotpaper
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With US midterm elections approaching, President Donald Trump has blamed Democrats and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries for soaring petrol prices, despite data showing that exports through the Strait of Hormuz have plunged 97 percent since the US-Israel war with Iran began. The average US petrol price has risen to $4.36 per gallon, up from $2.98 before the conflict started in late February, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump wrote: "What's driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis, but the word, 'Refineries,' where Russia's are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats."

However, daily exports through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by 97 percent since the war began, according to tracking data, choking global supplies. Experts say the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are reinforcing each other.

"The ongoing conflicts with Iran and Russia's war with Ukraine are reinforcing each other, impairing oil product markets, but Middle Eastern flows are far from normal," said Rachel Ziemba, senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

On Friday, G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves amid pressure from the White House. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at its lowest level since 1982.

Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted on X that the US told some European Union members to release strategic reserves or face a potential US diesel export ban, pushing France and Germany to do so, and that oil prices along with gasoline and diesel futures fell sharply as a result.

Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure have also driven up prices, particularly diesel. On Sunday, Ukraine's Ministry of Defence claimed it has disabled more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • US petrol prices have risen sharply since the war with Iran began, directly affecting household budgets and the broader economy.
  • The president's framing of the issue could influence voter perceptions ahead of the midterm elections, potentially shaping policy responses.
  • The combination of the Iran conflict and the Ukraine war is straining global oil product markets, with knock-on effects on supply chains and inflation worldwide.

Background

The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, leading to a conflict that has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude. Meanwhile, Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian oil refineries in response to Moscow's ongoing invasion, further tightening refined product markets. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been drawn down heavily to try to stabilise prices, and G7 nations have now agreed to release additional reserves.

Key Perspectives

President Donald Trump: Argues that high fuel prices are not due to the Strait of Hormuz closure but to Democratic state policies closing domestic refineries and Ukraine destroying Russian refineries, deflecting blame from the administration's war policy. Democrats and critics: Point to the 97 percent drop in Hormuz exports as evidence that the conflict with Iran remains the primary driver of higher prices, and accuse Trump of misleading the public ahead of the elections. Ukraine: Defends its strikes on Russian refineries as legitimate military actions, but these attacks contribute to global diesel supply tightness and higher prices. Energy analysts: See the two conflicts as compounding each other, with Middle East supply disruptions and Russian refining capacity losses creating a perfect storm for fuel markets.

What to Watch

  • Petrol price trends in the US over the next weeks, as G7 reserve releases take effect.
  • Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens partially or fully as diplomatic negotiations continue.
  • The impact of Trump's messaging on voter sentiment in swing states ahead of the midterm elections.

Sources

Zotpaper

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