Trump's sliding approval rating puts Republican control of Congress at risk in US midterms

Americans head to the polls on 3 November to elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Republicans currently control both chambers, holding 218 House seats, the exact number needed for a majority, plus one independent who votes with them, and 53 Senate seats against 45 Democrats and two independents who vote with them.

The president's party faces a difficult defence. Trump began his second term with an approval rating of just over 50 per cent, according to polling resource Silver Bulletin, but it quickly fell into the 40s. It was hovering around 42 per cent when he ordered air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February, dropped below 40 per cent shortly afterwards, and now sits at about 37 per cent.

At the same point in his first term, Trump's approval rating was 43 per cent; Joe Biden's was 40 per cent at an equivalent stage of his presidency. In both cases, the sitting president lost the House in the midterms but kept the Senate.

The Cook Political Report identifies 21 House districts as toss-ups: 15 held by Republicans and six by Democrats. If Democrats win five of those, on top of 28 districts rated likely or leaning Democratic, they will take the chamber. History is against the White House: since 1934, the president's party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterms and has made gains only three times in 23 such elections.

The Senate map is steeper for Democrats. Of the 35 seats up for election, the Cook Political Report rates only seven as toss-ups. Trump's poor ratings help explain why Democrats are setting their sights on states that Republicans have won consistently in recent years.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The result decides whether Trump can legislate during his final two years or face a Democratic-controlled Congress able to block his agenda.
Control of the House is within Democrats' reach: a net gain of five seats in the 21 most competitive districts would flip the chamber.
Midterm elections historically punish the president's party, making November a test of whether Trump's low approval rating becomes a decisive political liability.

Background

Midterms take place halfway through a presidential term, with all House seats and about a third of Senate seats on the ballot. They are routinely read as a referendum on the White House: since 1934, the president's party has lost House seats in 20 of 23 such elections. Approval ratings are treated as a leading indicator of how the party in power will perform. Trump's current rating of about 37 per cent is below his standing at an equivalent point in his first term and below Biden's at the same stage, though both of those presidents still lost the House.

Key Perspectives

Democrats: Trump's poor ratings have made them hopeful of winning both chambers, and they are targeting states that have voted Republican consistently in recent years. Republicans: They enter the campaign holding both chambers, with a stronger grip on the Senate, where they hold 53 seats and only seven races are considered genuine toss-ups. Election analysts: The Cook Political Report's ratings show a narrow but real path for Democrats in the House, where 15 of the 21 toss-up districts are currently Republican-held.

What to Watch

Trump's approval rating in the final three weeks of the campaign, as a leading indicator of his party's prospects.
The 21 toss-up House districts, especially the 15 held by Republicans that Democrats must flip to take the chamber.
The seven competitive Senate races, which will determine whether Democrats can overcome the Republican majority.

Analysis

Why This Matters

Background

Key Perspectives

What to Watch

Sources