UAE backs Ethiopia's federal government as renewed Tigray fighting threatens peace deal

Saudi Arabia yet to state position on latest escalation, analysts say

By LineZotpaper
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As renewed fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region threatens to unravel the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement and destabilise the Horn of Africa, the United Arab Emirates has publicly backed Ethiopia's federal government while Saudi Arabia has remained silent on the latest escalation, according to reporting from Addis Ababa.

Renewed fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region is threatening to unravel the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the previous war, and the responses of Gulf powers are drawing scrutiny as tensions with Eritrea raise the risk of a wider confrontation.

The UAE has taken a clear public position. On 25 September it condemned attacks by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and allied armed groups against Ethiopian federal forces, the seizure of airports in Tigray and escalation in the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara. Sheikh Shakhboot bin Nahyan Al Nahyan, the UAE minister of state, expressed solidarity with Ethiopia's government and people, reaffirmed support for the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and called for an end to hostilities and adherence to the Pretoria Agreement.

The statement did not establish whether the UAE is providing military assistance or has secured commitments from the parties. Abu Dhabi also holds commercial interests across the region. DP World operates the port of Berbera in Somaliland, and a shipping route launched in 2025 connects it with Jebel Ali in the UAE, offering an additional cargo corridor for inland destinations such as Ethiopia. Landlocked since Eritrea's independence in 1993, Ethiopia relies heavily on Djibouti for access to international trade.

Saudi Arabia has not publicly announced a position on the latest fighting, according to an October 1 analysis by the Critical Threats project. Riyadh did undertake diplomatic efforts earlier this year to reduce tensions between Ethiopia's federal government and the TPLF. In November 2025, Chatham House reported that sources said Riyadh had offered to mediate between Ethiopia and Eritrea amid rising tensions over maritime access and regional security. A June 2026 analysis by Germany's SWP think tank said previous Saudi mediation efforts had failed, partly because negotiations did not address Ethiopia's interest in the Eritrean port of Assab.

The extent to which either Gulf power can influence the course of the conflict remains unclear.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The renewed fighting threatens to unravel the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the previous Tigray war.
  • Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea raise the risk of a wider regional confrontation in the Horn of Africa.
  • The positions of the UAE and Saudi Arabia will help shape whether external powers push the parties toward a political settlement or accept a military escalation.

Background

The Pretoria agreement ended a war between Ethiopia's federal government and Tigrayan forces. The latest fighting has also drawn in the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara, and tensions with Eritrea have added to fears of a broader conflict. Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea's independence in 1993 and relies heavily on Djibouti for trade access, which helps explain Gulf interest in regional stability and infrastructure.

Key Perspectives

The UAE: Has publicly backed Ethiopia's federal government, condemned attacks by the TPLF and called for adherence to the Pretoria Agreement, while holding commercial stakes in regional ports and shipping routes. Saudi Arabia: Has not publicly commented on the latest fighting, but has a record of regional diplomacy, including reported offers to mediate between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Analysts: The Critical Threats project notes Riyadh's silence on the renewed war. Germany's SWP think tank argues past Saudi mediation failed partly because negotiations never addressed Ethiopia's interest in the Eritrean port of Assab.

What to Watch

  • Whether the UAE's public backing translates into leverage over any of the parties or commitments to de-escalate.
  • Any public Saudi statement or fresh mediation offer on the current fighting.
  • How Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions evolve, since direct confrontation between them would significantly widen the conflict.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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