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Musk pours $366 million into Republican midterm campaigns as spending shatters records

Epstein becomes central figure in attack ads; Democrats out-raise Republicans in direct contributions but face super PAC gap

By LineZotpaper
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Updated
Read Time3 min
Sources4 outlets
The 2026 US midterm election is on track to be the most expensive in history, with ad spending forecast to reach $US11.6 billion, surpassing even the 2024 presidential race. Elon Musk has emerged as the largest single donor, ploughing at least $US366 million into Republican campaigns this cycle, while Jeffrey Epstein has become an unexpected fixture in campaign ads across the country.

In Iowa, Democratic attack ads accuse Republican members of Congress Zach Nunn and Ashley Hinson of protecting paedophiles by blocking the release of the so-called Epstein files. Both eventually voted to release the files after US President Donald Trump gave the OK. Hinson, who is in a tough race for the US Senate, hits back in her own ad: 'Men like Epstein who hurt children, they'll have to answer to God. But men who lie about it to win an election? They'll have to answer to you.' Epstein now fuels dozens of TV ads nationwide.

AdImpact, which tracks advertising spending, forecasts $US11.6 billion ($16.4 billion) will be spent on ads alone in the 2025-26 election cycle, more than the $US11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential election. Spending on aired and future reservations crossed the $US10 billion mark last week. Races for the Senate have accounted for more than 60 per cent of ad spending aired so far.

Elon Musk has contributed at least $US366 million to Republican campaigns, including more than $US276 million since July 1, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Two payments to the Senate Leadership Fund PAC totalled $US158 million and were transferred to the campaign to elect Ken Paxton over Democrat James Talarico in Texas. 'Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat,' Talarico said this week. 'There is something deeply wrong with a political system that allows one trillionaire to buy his own personal US senator.' Musk has also used his platform X to denigrate Talarico and promote a conspiracy theory about his mental health.

The Republican Party entered the midterms with a massive cash advantage. Its central PAC for Senate races had roughly $US100 million more in the kitty than the Democrats' equivalent at the end of June, and the House fund about $US50 million more. The Republican National Committee had $US130 million in the bank, while the Democratic National Committee was broke after using its Washington headquarters to secure a $US15 million loan. 'It's hard to imagine how an organisation like the DNC could not raise money when you have President Trump in office, but that is what it is,' said Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist based in North Carolina.

MAGA Inc, Trump's super PAC, had $US415 million cash on hand and by mid-October had spent about $US300 million. Other major Republican donors include Steve Wynn ($US8 million), Stephen Schwarzman and Diane Hendricks ($US5 million each), and US-born crypto entrepreneur Bijan Tehrani, who lives in Melbourne. On the Democrat side, Michael Bloomberg contributed $US80 million in September and October.

However, Democrats typically raise money through direct contributions to individual candidates' campaigns, which enjoy lower ad rates. The 'lowest unit cost' rule means candidates often pay far less than PACs for TV spots. In the September quarter, Talarico's campaign raised $US60.2 million to Paxton's $US10.2 million; in Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown raised $US23.1 million against Republican Jon Husted's $US4.8 million. Across all tight Senate races, Democrats out-raised Republicans multiple times over. The Federal Communications Commission, headed by Trump ally Brendan Carr, recently changed the rules to allow party organisations and joint fundraising committees to access that lower rate, which may shift the balance.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • The sheer scale of outside spending raises questions about the influence of billionaires and super PACs on elections and policy.
  • The focus on Epstein in attack ads indicates how unproven allegations are being weaponised in tight races, potentially distorting voter debate.
  • The FCC rule change could further advantage party machinery over candidates, altering campaign dynamics in future cycles.

Background

The 2026 US midterm elections determine control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, with Democrats seeking to flip the Senate from Republican control. Outside spending has grown dramatically since the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision, allowing unlimited independent expenditures by corporations and unions. Super PACs and individuals like Elon Musk can pour unlimited money into campaigns as long as they do not coordinate directly with candidates. This cycle is on track to break all records, with Texas and Ohio among the most expensive Senate races.

Key Perspectives

Democrats and James Talarico: Argue that Elon Musk's massive donations to elect Ken Paxton amount to buying a Senate seat. They note that Talarico has raised far more in direct contributions but faces an uneven playing field because super PACs can spend without cap. Republicans and Super PACs: Benefit from the cash advantage of MAGA Inc and the Senate Leadership Fund. They argue that their donors are exercising free speech and that Democrats benefit from lower candidate ad rates and large direct contributions from figures like Bloomberg. Critics and good-government groups: Express concern that billionaires like Musk and Bloomberg can dominate the airwaves, while the Epstein ads show how outside groups can inject sensational, unverified material into campaigns, undermining informed voting.

What to Watch

  • The final spending figures for the Texas Senate race, which could become the most expensive non-presidential election ever.
  • The impact of the FCC rule change allowing party committees to access the lowest unit cost for ads, which could widen Republicans' spending advantage.
  • Whether the Epstein-focused ads sway undecided voters in Iowa and other battleground districts.

Sources

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 6 supported.

Show each claim
  1. Partly supportedThe headline says US midterm spending overall is on track to break records.The Age - Latest News: “AdImpact, which tracks advertising spending, forecasts that $US11.6 billion ($16.4 billion) will be spent on ads alone in the 2025-26 election cycle”
  2. SupportedElon Musk is the biggest donor in the midterm campaign.The Age - Latest News: “Musk is the largest known donor to this midterm campaign by a wide margin.”
  3. Not in the sourcesThe summary characterises Democratic fundraising as grassroots fundraising.The Age - Latest News: “But while Democrats do use PACs, they typically raise their money through direct contributions to individual candidates’ campaigns.”
  4. SupportedAdImpact forecasts $11.6 billion in ad spending for 2025-26, exceeding the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential election.The Age - Latest News: “AdImpact, which tracks advertising spending, forecasts that $US11.6 billion ($16.4 billion) will be spent on ads alone in the 2025-26 election cycle – surpassing the $US11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential election.”
  5. Not in the sourcesDemocrats aim to flip seats in Texas, Ohio, Michigan and Maine.The Age - Latest News: “With Democrats striving to take control of the US Senate and Republicans desperate to cling on”
  6. Partly supportedSenate races account for more than 60% of ad spending so far.The Age - Latest News: “races for that chamber have accounted for more than 60 per cent of ad spending aired so far.”
  7. Partly supportedThe DNC was in debt after using its Washington headquarters to secure a $15 million loan last year.The Age - Latest News: “Last year, it used its Washington headquarters to secure a $US15 million loan. It was only this month that it again had more cash on hand than debt.”
  8. SupportedMorgan Jackson said, “It's hard to imagine how an organization like the DNC could not raise money when you have President Trump in office, but that is what it is.”The Age - Latest News: ““It’s hard to imagine how an organisation like the DNC could not raise money when you have President Trump in office, but that is what it is,” said Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist based in North Carolina.”
  9. SupportedThe $158 million Musk gave to the Senate Leadership Fund was transferred to support Ken Paxton against James Talarico in Texas.The Age - Latest News: “The payments, $US158 million in total, were transferred the next day to the campaign to elect Ken Paxton over Talarico in Texas.”
  10. SupportedTalarico said, “Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat. There is something deeply wrong with a political system that allows one trillionaire to buy his own personal US senator.”The Age - Latest News: ““Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat,” Talarico said this week. “There is something deeply wrong with a political system that allows one trillionaire to buy his own personal US senator.””
  11. Partly supportedIn contested races, the difference between candidate and market ad rates can be upwards of ten times.The Age - Latest News: “In highly contested elections in a big market, the cost differential can be “quite large”, he says – upwards of 10 times.”
  12. SupportedThe September-quarter fundraising comparison was $60.2 million for Talarico and $10.2 million for Paxton.The Age - Latest News: “Talarico’s campaign raised far more than Paxton’s in the September quarter – $US60.2 million to $US10.2 million, FEC records show.”

Zotpaper

Written by Rex Doyle on the World desk. Claims checked by Ines Fairley, verification. Edited by Angus Burke, chief sub.

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