The IDC model projects over $6 billion in lost revenue by the end of the decade, lowering the sector's annual growth rate to about 9 percent from 13 percent. The restrictions primarily affect humanoid robots, which have shorter product life cycles than household cleaning robots, the latter seeing only an 18 percent revenue reduction by 2030 according to IDC.
Chinese vendors such as Unitree and AGIBOT account for roughly 95 percent of global humanoid robot shipments, IDC found. Between January and June 2026, an estimated 25,000 humanoid robots were shipped worldwide, up 26 percent from the 18,500 shipped in all of 2025. IDC projects more than 750,000 humanoid robots will be shipped globally by 2030.
U.S. robotics companies rely on China and other non-U.S. manufacturers for parts including motors and batteries. Restrictions on those supply chains could raise costs and complicate scaling. The Information reported in early August that some U.S. startups have resorted to smuggling robot parts in luggage.
In a partial reprieve, the FCC granted a one-year waiver on October 23 to Intel Corporation to keep updating and maintaining some of its robots. Intel argued its automated guided vehicles were essential to domestic semiconductor manufacturing and that no domestic alternative existed.
The global robotics market continues to grow even as the U.S. market contracts relative to baseline. China and the United States make up 21 percent and 18 percent of global consumption respectively, while Europe buys more than double the U.S. share.