Xi, Li and Cai form 'central gang of three' at the top of Chinese politics

Analysis argues President Xi Jinping relies on two indispensable lieutenants to govern, despite persistent succession rumours

By LineZotpaper

Published21 October 2026

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As the Chinese Communist Party prepares for the Fifth Plenum of its 20th Central Committee, rumours again circulate about a successor to Xi Jinping. But a new analysis argues that the real story is not who might replace Xi, but how he relies on two key lieutenants, Premier Li Qiang and senior official Cai Qi, to sustain his rule, forming what one commentator calls a 'central gang of three' that defines elite politics in the Xi era.

Writing in Foreign Policy, Chinese political commentator Deng Yuwen argues that outside observers have repeatedly misjudged Xi's rule by focusing on imagined power struggles while overlooking how the system functions daily. The analysis contends that Xi cannot personally manage the entire state and party machinery and needs trusted lieutenants. Within the 20th Politburo, Li Qiang and Cai Qi are described as Xi's two most indispensable aides: Li overseeing government affairs, Cai overseeing party affairs.

The article draws a parallel to an observation by former Premier Zhou Enlai, who advised senior commanders to understand the relationships among Mao Zedong, military leader Lin Biao and Mao's wife Jiang Qing. In the current era, the analysis says, Xi, Li and Cai form a similarly unequal triangle, with Xi as the supreme authority over both men. However, the author stresses critical differences: neither Li nor Cai possesses the independent political capital that Lin commanded nor the familial connection that gave Jiang her standing. Both owe their ascent to trust built with Xi during their careers in provincial and central government, and neither can establish independent power centres outside Xi's authority.

Since the 20th Party Congress in 2022, responsibilities have been divided: Li serves as premier and ranks second in the party hierarchy, while Cai, ranking fifth, heads the powerful General Office of the CCP Central Committee and this year took charge of the Central Party School. The analysis notes that while Cai's proximity to Xi confers influence, the division of work prevents either man from monopolising power. Key party functions such as discipline inspection, propaganda and security are overseen by other Xi loyalists who report directly to the leader. The transfer of Shi Taifeng to head the Central Committee Organisation Department last year is cited as a move that objectively limits Cai's ability to build a personal power base.

The article dismisses speculation that Li Qiang or Cai Qi have been designated Xi's successor, arguing that neither claim is credible. Instead, the analysis frames the relationship as one of tightly controlled delegation, with Xi retaining final authority over anti-corruption campaigns, political standards and ideological education.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The relationship between Xi, Li and Cai shapes how China is governed day-to-day, affecting everything from economic policy to internal party discipline
Understanding the actual power structure, rather than chasing succession rumours, is essential for foreign governments and investors assessing China's stability and policy direction
The 'gang of three' dynamic suggests continuity of Xi's rule for the foreseeable future, with no obvious path for a rival to emerge

Background

Chinese elite politics has long been opaque, with power concentrated in the Politburo Standing Committee. Under Xi Jinping, power has been further centralised, but no leader can run the entire system alone. Traditionally, a premier handles government administration while party secretaries manage the party apparatus. The current structure sees Xi as party general secretary, Li Qiang as premier (second-ranked in the party), and Cai Qi as a senior party official overseeing the Secretariat and General Office. Cai's rise has been particularly notable, placing him close to Xi's daily operations. The Fifth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee is a scheduled party meeting where major policy and personnel decisions may be announced.

Key Perspectives

President Xi Jinping: Relies on trusted lieutenants to execute his agenda but retains ultimate control over all major decisions, especially party affairs, the military and anti-corruption. Premier Li Qiang: Manages the state council and economic policy, but operates under Xi's authority with no independent power base. Senior Official Cai Qi: Controls key party machinery and has daily access to Xi, giving him influence, but his role is constrained by other Xi loyalists in charge of separate party functions. Critics/Skeptics: Some foreign analysts overinterpret meetings and photographs as signs of power struggles. The analysis warns that such a focus on palace coup scenarios misses how the system actually works.

What to Watch

Whether the Fifth Plenum announces any new appointments to the Politburo or changes in top party roles
Any public signals of preference between Li and Cai, such as which is more frequently seen at Xi's side in official media
Signs of tension in the division of responsibilities, particularly if economic difficulties put pressure on Li's position while Cai's party role grows

Sources

Xi’s Gang of Three · Foreign Policy

Checked

10 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 8 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedXi, Li and Cai form what the author calls a “central gang of three” in elite politics during the Xi era.Foreign Policy: “Together, they constitute what I call the “central gang of three” that defines elite politics in the Xi era.”
SupportedXi relies on Li and Cai as indispensable lieutenants to sustain his rule, despite rumours about succession.Foreign Policy: “Neither claim is credible. Yet taken together, these rumors inadvertently reveal something fundamental about the workings of Chinese elite politics: Xi relies heavily on Li and Cai, his two most important lieutenants, to sustain his rule.”
Not in the sourcesThe article’s argument is attributed to Chinese political commentator Deng Yuwen.Foreign Policy
SupportedThe CCP is preparing to convene the Fifth Plenum of its 20th Central Committee, amid renewed rumours about Xi’s successor.Foreign Policy: “As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prepares to convene the Fifth Plenum of its 20th Central Committee, rumors about personnel changes at the top are once again sweeping through overseas Chinese-language circles.”
SupportedThe source says Li and Cai are Xi’s two most indispensable aides, with one overseeing government affairs and the other party affairs.Foreign Policy: “Within the 20th Politburo, Li and Cai are his two most indispensable aides—one overseeing government affairs, the other party affairs.”
SupportedZhou Enlai advised senior commanders to understand the relationships among Mao Zedong, Lin Biao and Jiang Qing.Foreign Policy: “Zhou Enlai, the first premier of the People’s Republic of China, once advised senior military commanders newly entering the highest levels of politics that understanding the political situation required grasping and navigating what he called “central politics”—the relationships among Mao Zedong, military leader Lin Biao, and Mao’s wife, Jiang Qing, the three-most powerful figures at the time.”
SupportedThe source describes Xi as supreme authority over Li and Cai, who perform distinct functions.Foreign Policy: “Today, Xi, Li, and Cai form a similarly unequal triangle: Xi is the supreme authority over both men, while Li and Cai perform distinct functions, share common interests, and remain potential competitors.”
SupportedLi is premier and ranks second in the party hierarchy; Cai ranks fifth, heads the General Office and took charge of the Central Party School this year.Foreign Policy: “Li serves as premier of the State Council and ranks second in the party hierarchy. Cai, meanwhile, is the highest-ranking secretary of the Secretariat, the Politburo’s executive arm. Although he ranks fifth in the party hierarchy, Cai oversees the Secretariat’s daily work and simultaneously heads the powerful General Office of the CCP Central Committee. This year, he also took charge of the Central Party School in Beijing.”
SupportedOther Xi loyalists directly oversee functions including discipline inspection, propaganda and security, and report to Xi.Foreign Policy: “Discipline inspection and anti-corruption work, personnel and organizational affairs, propaganda and ideology, political and legal affairs, and security are all overseen by other Xi loyalists, who report to the leader directly.”
Partly supportedThe source says Xi ultimately decides how far anti-corruption campaigns go, political standards for officials and the party’s ideological education campaigns.Foreign Policy: “How far anti-corruption campaigns should go, what political standards officials must meet, and what ideological education campaigns the party should undertake are ultimately decided by Xi himself.”