In a reflective piece marking the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Maley draws a parallel between the fate of Czechoslovakia after the 1938 Munich Agreement and that of Afghanistan today: “Silent, mournful, abandoned, broken,” as Winston Churchill said of Czechoslovakia. Maley contends that Western circles show little appetite for deep reflection on Afghanistan’s experience, often concluding that democracy was always destined to fail there.
Yet he points to evidence from the Asia Foundation’s 2021 Survey of the Afghan People, which found that 88% of respondents had “no sympathy at all” for the Taliban. Maley co-authored a book with Afghan researcher Ahmad Shuja Jamal cataloguing both the successes and failures of the Afghan Republic.
What went right
According to Maley, a generation of young Afghans grew up in an era of globalisation. By 2021, nearly 70% of the population used television as their primary news source. Average per capita incomes rose, and a vibrant civil society emerged, supported by what he calls “the freest media in the region.” Health outcomes improved across a range of indicators, and girls’ access to education expanded significantly, especially in urban areas. These achievements, though sometimes exaggerated by Western donors, were real.
What went wrong
Maley argues that the institutional design from 2001, heavily influenced by the United States, created an overcentralised and complex state. Too much power was concentrated in the presidency, leaving the government fragile and disconnected from local communities. The US-led coalition failed to live up to its promises, ultimately abandoning the republic to the Taliban’s return in August 2021.