The Big Build royal commission has been told that the business case for the Melbourne Airport Rail Link was manipulated to ensure the state government’s preferred Sunshine route would be selected over a more direct alternative through Maribyrnong. A confidential submission by a planning expert who advised on the project alleges that a secret working group was established at the direction of then-public transport minister Jacinta Allan to bake in the case for Sunshine, and that cost estimates for the Maribyrnong option were deliberately inflated by exaggerating the required tunnelling. Allan denies the allegations and is expected to be called as a witness.
The submission, provided to the commission and seen by The Age, says the secret working group was formed in late 2017 or early 2018 and included public servants and outside consultants. Members were told not to discuss their work with colleagues or diary their meetings, and all instructions were given verbally. “The task was to produce a document, or set of documents, prior to the 2018 election so that after that election there would be no further consideration of any alternative routes for the MARL other than through Sunshine,” the submission reads.
The planning expert further alleges that to make the case for Sunshine iron-clad, the estimated cost of the Maribyrnong route was inflated by including an unnecessary 3.5 kilometres of tunnelling, adding between $3.8 billion and $4.6 billion to the price tag. A 2012 study by a former Liberal government had top-scored Maribyrnong out of 22 possible routes, with Sunshine ranked second. By July 2018, Transport for Victoria’s strategic appraisal put the Maribyrnong cost at $20 billion to $25 billion, roughly double the $8 billion to $13 billion estimated for Sunshine. The expert group calculates a truer average cost for Maribyrnong at $16.5 billion in 2018 dollars.
The allegation that costings were deliberately manipulated is contained in a contemporaneous solicitor’s file note, dated August 23, 2018, which states: “Untenable. Serious matters ignored, not acted upon. 4 options – one particular route better but more expensive (doctored to make it unviable).”
When the planning expert challenged a Transport Department executive over the assessment, he was told: “The minister said to me that either these documents say Sunshine or I’ll sack you. So they say Sunshine.”
Jacinta Allan, who was the public transport minister at the time and later served as premier before losing the Labor leadership in July, denies the claims. “The allegations made are incorrect,” a spokesman said. “Ms Allan will co-operate with the important work of the royal commission. She will answer whatever questions the royal commission has for her about these allegations, but it is not appropriate to pre-empt the royal commission’s work.” A colleague of Allan, speaking anonymously, said the former premier was furious at the suggestion she would coerce public servants.
The Big Build royal commission, led by Chris Kourakis, is examining whether Victoria’s $100 billion infrastructure program was primarily designed to advance the public interest or Labor’s electoral prospects. In his opening address, Kourakis noted that “governments must select and design infrastructure projects around the socioeconomic needs of the Victorian public, and not party political interest”.
The allegations have drawn on other submissions critical of the airport rail planning process. Independent transport planner William McDougall, who worked on several major projects, believes the project is a case study of where Victoria’s planning for and delivery of major transport projects has gone wrong. He wrote: “Throughout my career, I have seen an accelerating shift away from integrated, evidence-based planning towards politically selected and prioritised projects.”
The Victorian Auditor-General’s Office, in a 2022 report, described the options assessment as “not sufficiently rigorous” and lacking transparency, noting that it “significantly influenced” the state government’s $5 billion commitment to the project.
The state opposition has also backed the airport rail link, with Coalition leader Jess Wilson promising to expand the royal commission’s terms of reference to examine whether any project was conceived to confer political or union benefit. Wilson has also committed to delivering the project including a new station at Keilor East if elected.
Premier Ben Carroll, who has made the airport rail link his “highest priority”, did not address the allegations when questioned by this masthead. A spokesman said: “The premier’s first act was to establish the toughest royal commission into the construction industry to leave no stone unturned. … We won’t pre-empt its findings.”
The royal commission is scheduled to begin public hearings next week.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The allegations strike at the integrity of Victoria’s largest infrastructure project, which has already received $12 billion in state and federal funding, and raise questions about the probity of the entire Big Build program.
- The commission’s findings could influence the outcome of the upcoming state election, with both major parties making the airport rail link a centerpiece of their transport policies.
- The case highlights broader concerns about the politicisation of major project planning and the pressure placed on public servants to deliver politically desired outcomes.
Background
The Melbourne Airport Rail Link has been debated for decades, with multiple route options considered. In 2018, the Andrews Labor government announced the Sunshine route as its preferred option, over the federal government’s preference for a more direct tunnel through Maribyrnong. The project has since stalled amid cost blowouts and planning disputes. The Big Build royal commission was established by Premier Ben Carroll after he took office to investigate Victoria’s $100 billion infrastructure program, following years of controversy over cost overruns, delays and allegations of corruption.
Key Perspectives
Planning expert (anonymous): The business case was manipulated to guarantee Sunshine was selected, with costs for the rival route deliberately inflated and a secret working group established under orders from then-minister Jacinta Allan.
Jacinta Allan: Denies the allegations, saying she will cooperate fully with the royal commission. She has previously defended the Sunshine route as the best option.
Auditor-General of Victoria: Found the options assessment behind the route selection was “not sufficiently rigorous” and lacked transparency.
William McDougall, transport planner: Argues the project exemplifies political selection over evidence-based planning, with “direct, political interference” to ensure Sunshine prevailed.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson: Promises to expand the royal commission’s terms of reference to investigate whether any project benefited a trade union or political party.
What to Watch
- The start of public hearings next week, where Jacinta Allan is expected to be called as a witness.
- Whether the royal commission’s findings will be released before the state election and how they might affect voter sentiment.
- The response from Premier Ben Carroll and his government as more submissions emerge.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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- SupportedThe airport rail study was allegedly doctored to push the Sunshine route over the more direct Maribyrnong option.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “The most serious allegation raised by the planning expert is that, to make an iron-clad case for Sunshine, the estimated cost of a more direct route through Maribyrnong was intentionally inflated by exaggerating the amount of tunnelling required.”
- SupportedThe planning expert alleges that the Maribyrnong costings were inflated to make the route unviable.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “The note, dated August 23, 2018, and seen by The Age , reads: “Untenable. Serious matters ignored, not acted upon. “ 4 options – one particular route better but more expensive (doctored to make it unviable).””
- SupportedThe submission says the task was to ensure no alternative to Sunshine would be considered after the 2018 election.Brisbane Times - Latest News: ““The task was to produce a document, or set of documents, prior to the 2018 election so that after that election there would be no further consideration of any alternative routes for the MARL other than through Sunshine,” the submission reads.”
- SupportedThe working group was allegedly established at the direction of then-public transport minister Jacinta Allan in late 2017 or early 2018.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “A confidential submission to the royal commission by a planning expert who advised on the airport rail link reveals that a secret working group was established in late 2017 or early 2018 at the direction of then-public transport minister Jacinta Allan to allegedly bake in the case for the Sunshine route.”
- SupportedThe expert group says unnecessary tunnelling of 3.5 kilometres added between $3.8 billion and $4.6 billion to Maribyrnong’s estimated cost.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “The planning expert, working with trusted former colleagues experienced in rail engineering and major project costing, has calculated that an unnecessary 3.5 kilometres of tunnelling was included along the proposed Maribyrnong route to add between $3.8 billion and $4.6 billion to the estimated cost.”
- SupportedThe 2018 strategic appraisal put Maribyrnong at $20 billion to $25 billion, compared with $8 billion to $13 billion for Sunshine.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “A price tag of $20 billion to $25 billion for Maribyrnong – double the estimated $8 billion to $13 billion cost of the Sunshine route – was included in a strategic appraisal of the airport rail link published by Transport for Victoria in July 2018”
- SupportedThe expert group estimates Maribyrnong’s average cost at $16.5 billion in 2018 dollars.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “A truer, average cost estimate of the Maribyrnong route, according to detailed calculations provided to this masthead by the group of experts, is $16.5 billion in 2018 dollars.”
- SupportedThe planning expert says an executive told him: “The minister said to me that either these documents say Sunshine or I’ll sack you. So they say Sunshine.”Brisbane Times - Latest News: ““He said to me, ‘The minister said to me that either these documents say Sunshine or I’ll sack you. So they say Sunshine.’””
- SupportedAllan denies the allegations and says she will cooperate with the royal commission.Brisbane Times - Latest News: ““The allegations made are incorrect,” a spokesman for the former premier said. “Ms Allan will co-operate with the important work of the royal commission. She will answer whatever questions the royal commission has for her about these allegations, but it is not appropriate to pre-empt the royal commission’s work.””
- SupportedThe 2012 study ranked Maribyrnong first among 22 possible routes, with Sunshine second.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “An earlier 2012 study, commissioned by the then Liberal state government, top-scored Maribyrnong, known at the time as the “direct tunnel” option, out of 22 possible routes, with Sunshine ranked a close second.”
- SupportedThe Victorian Auditor-General’s Office described the options assessment as “not sufficiently rigorous” and said it significantly influenced the state government’s $5 billion commitment.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “A 2022 VAGO report into the quality of government business cases used to support major projects was highly critical of the way that route options for the MARL were assessed, describing the work done as “not sufficiently rigorous” and lacking in transparency. The auditor-general noted that the options assessments “significantly influenced” a state government decision to commit $5 billion to the project”
- SupportedThe royal commission’s inquiry concerns whether Victoria’s $100 billion infrastructure program was primarily designed for the public interest or Labor’s electoral prospects.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “The airport rail allegations go to the heart of a question that commissioner Chris Kourakis has flagged will be central to his inquiry into the Big Build – whether the state government’s $100 billion infrastructure program was primarily designed to advance the public interest or Labor’s electoral prospects.”